Search Results: calculating-credibility

Calculating Credibility

How Leaders Assess Military Threats

Author: Daryl G. Press

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 9780801474156

Category: History

Page: 218

View: 9105

Calculating Credibility examines—and ultimately rejects—a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis—not past actions—determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment—sports, gambling, warfare—competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

Fighting for Credibility

US Reputation and International Politics

Author: Frank P. Harvey,John Mitton

Publisher: University of Toronto Press

ISBN: 1487520549

Category: History

Page: 300

View: 6800

Focusing on cases of asymmetric US encounters with smaller powers since the end of the Cold War, Harvey and Mitton reveal that reputations matter for credibility in international politics. This dynamic and deeply documented study successfully brings reputation back to the table of foreign diplomacy.

Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets, Data Mining and Granular Computing

11th International Conference, RSFDGrC 2007, Toronto, Canada, May 14-16, 2007

Author: Aijun An,Jerzy Stefanowski,Sheela Ramanna,Cory Butz,Witold Pedrycz

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3540725296

Category: Computers

Page: 585

View: 3805

This volume contains the papers selected for presentation at the 11th Int- national Conference on Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets, Data Mining, and Granular Computing (RSFDGrC 2007), a part of the Joint Rough Set Symposium (JRS 2007) organized by Infobright Inc. and York University. JRS 2007 was held for the ?rst time during May 14–16, 2007 in MaRS Discovery District, Toronto, Canada. It consisted of two conferences: RSFDGrC 2007 and the Second Int- national Conference on Rough Sets and Knowledge Technology (RSKT 2007). The two conferences that constituted JRS 2007 investigated rough sets as an emerging methodology established more than 25 years ago by Zdzis law Pawlak. Roughsettheoryhasbecomeanintegralpartofdiversehybridresearchstreams. In keeping with this trend, JRS 2007 encompassed rough and fuzzy sets, kno- edgetechnologyanddiscovery,softandgranularcomputing,dataprocessingand mining, while maintaining an emphasis on foundations and applications. RSFDGrC 2007 followed in the footsteps of well-established international initiatives devoted to the dissemination of rough sets research, held so far in Canada, China, Japan, Poland, Sweden, and the USA. RSFDGrC was ?rst - ganized as the 7th International Workshop on Rough Sets, Data Mining and Granular Computing held in Yamaguchi, Japan in 1999. Its key feature was to stress the role of integrating intelligent information methods to solve real-world, large, complex problems concerned with uncertainty and fuzziness. RSFDGrC achieved the status of a bi-annual international conference, starting from 2003 in Chongqing, China.

Journal of Actuarial Practice

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Insurance

Page: N.A

View: 1688

China's Ascent

Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics

Author: Robert S. Ross,Zhu Feng

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801456983

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 7434

Assessments of China's importance on the world stage usually focus on a single dimension of China's increasing power, rather than on the multiple sources of China's rise, including its economic might and the continuing modernization of its military. This book offers multiple analytical perspectives—constructivist, liberal, neorealist—on the significance of the many dimensions of China's regional and global influence. Distinguished authors consider the likelihood of conflict and peaceful accommodation as China grows ever stronger. They look at the changing position of China "from the inside": How do Chinese policymakers evaluate the contemporary international order and what are the regional and global implications of that worldview? The authors also address the implications of China's increasing power for Chinese policymaking and for the foreign policies of Korea, Japan, and the United States. Contributors: Robert Art, Brandeis University; Avery Goldstein, University of Pennsylvania; G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University; Byung-Kook Kim, Korea University; Jonathan Kirshner, Cornell University; Jeffrey W. Legro, University of Virginia; Jack S. Levy, Rutgers University; Qin Yaqing, China Foreign Affairs University; Robert S. Ross, Boston College; Akio Takahara, University of Tokyo; Tang Shiping, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Wei Ling, China Foreign Affairs University; Zhu Feng, Peking University

Making and Unmaking Nations

The Origins and Dynamics of Genocide in Contemporary Africa

Author: Scott Straus

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455677

Category: Political Science

Page: 408

View: 1474

In Making and Unmaking Nations, Scott Straus seeks to explain why and how genocide takes place—and, perhaps more important, how it has been avoided in places where it may have seemed likely or even inevitable. To solve that puzzle, he examines postcolonial Africa, analyzing countries in which genocide occurred and where it could have but did not. Why have there not been other Rwandas? Straus finds that deep-rooted ideologies—how leaders make their nations—shape strategies of violence and are central to what leads to or away from genocide. Other critical factors include the dynamics of war, the role of restraint, and the interaction between national and local actors in the staging of campaigns of large-scale violence. Grounded in Straus's extensive fieldwork in contemporary Africa, the study of major twentieth-century cases of genocide, and the literature on genocide and political violence, Making and Unmaking Nations centers on cogent analyses of three nongenocide cases (Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal) and two in which genocide took place (Rwanda and Sudan). Straus’s empirical analysis is based in part on an original database of presidential speeches from 1960 to 2005. The book also includes a broad-gauge analysis of all major cases of large-scale violence in Africa since decolonization. Straus’s insights into the causes of genocide will inform the study of political violence as well as giving policymakers and nongovernmental organizations valuable tools for the future.

Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy

Iraq, 9/11, and Misguided Reform

Author: Paul R. Pillar

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231527802

Category: Political Science

Page: 416

View: 1620

A career of nearly three decades with the CIA and the National Intelligence Council showed Paul R. Pillar that intelligence reforms, especially measures enacted since 9/11, can be deeply misguided. They often miss the sources that underwrite failed policy and misperceive our ability to read outside influences. They also misconceive the intelligence-policy relationship and promote changes that weaken intelligence-gathering operations. In this book, Pillar confronts the intelligence myths Americans have come to rely on to explain national tragedies, including the belief that intelligence drives major national security decisions and can be fixed to avoid future failures. Pillar believes these assumptions waste critical resources and create harmful policies, diverting attention away from smarter reform, and they keep Americans from recognizing the limits of obtainable knowledge. Pillar revisits U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War and highlights the small role intelligence played in those decisions, and he demonstrates the negligible effect that America's most notorious intelligence failures had on U.S. policy and interests. He then reviews in detail the events of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, condemning the 9/11 commission and the George W. Bush administration for their portrayals of the role of intelligence. Pillar offers an original approach to better informing U.S. policy, which involves insulating intelligence management from politicization and reducing the politically appointed layer in the executive branch to combat slanted perceptions of foreign threats. Pillar concludes with principles for adapting foreign policy to inevitable uncertainties.

Complex deterrence

strategy in the global age

Author: T. V. Paul,Patrick M. Morgan,James J. Wirtz

Publisher: University Of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226650029

Category: History

Page: 345

View: 8395

As the costs of a preemptive foreign policy in Iraq have become clear, strategies such as containment and deterrence have been gaining currency among policy makers. This comprehensive book offers an agenda for the contemporary practice of deterrence—especially as it applies to nuclear weapons—in an increasingly heterogeneous global and political setting. Moving beyond the precepts of traditional deterrence theory, this groundbreaking volume offers insights for the use of deterrence in the modern world, where policy makers may encounter irrational actors, failed states, religious zeal, ambiguous power relationships, and other situations where the traditional rules of statecraft do not apply. A distinguished group of contributors here examines issues such as deterrence among the Great Powers; the problems of regional and nonstate actors; and actors armed with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. Complex Deterrence will be a valuable resource for anyone facing the considerable challenge of fostering security and peace in the twenty-first century.

Federal Register

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Delegated legislation

Page: N.A

View: 3959

The Journal of Military History

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: United States

Page: N.A

View: 7640

Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska

Informatica

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Computer science

Page: N.A

View: 336

Casualty Actuarial Society Forum

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Insurance

Page: N.A

View: 4754

Bayesian analysis in econometrics and statistics

essays in honor of Harold Jeffreys

Author: Sir Harold Jeffreys,Arnold Zellner

Publisher: North-Holland

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 474

View: 5285

Waging War, Planning Peace

U.S. Noncombat Operations and Major Wars

Author: Aaron Rapport

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455634

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 5826

As the U.S. experience in Iraq following the 2003 invasion made abundantly clear, failure to properly plan for risks associated with postconflict stabilization and reconstruction can have a devastating impact on the overall success of a military mission. In Waging War, Planning Peace, Aaron Rapport investigates how U.S. presidents and their senior advisers have managed vital noncombat activities while the nation is in the midst of fighting or preparing to fight major wars. He argues that research from psychology—specifically, construal level theory—can help explain how individuals reason about the costs of postconflict noncombat operations that they perceive as lying in the distant future. In addition to preparations for "Phase IV" in the lead-up to the Iraq War, Rapport looks at the occupation of Germany after World War II, the planned occupation of North Korea in 1950, and noncombat operations in Vietnam in 1964 and 1965. Applying his insights to these cases, he finds that civilian and military planners tend to think about near-term tasks in concrete terms, seriously assessing the feasibility of the means they plan to employ to secure valued ends. For tasks they perceive as further removed in time, they tend to focus more on the desirability of the overarching goals they are pursuing rather than the potential costs, risks, and challenges associated with the means necessary to achieve these goals. Construal level theory, Rapport contends, provides a coherent explanation of how a strategic disconnect can occur. It can also show postwar planners how to avoid such perilous missteps.

Miracles

Author: Richard Swinburne

Publisher: Prentice Hall

ISBN: N.A

Category: Miracles

Page: 210

View: 3494

Journal of Communications and Networks

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Computer networks

Page: N.A

View: 5900

Insurer Financial Solvency

Discussion Paper Program. Presented May 10-13, 1992 Chicago Illinois

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Casualty insurance

Page: 994

View: 6287

Political Science Quarterly

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Social sciences

Page: N.A

View: 8348

Monetary regimes and macroeconomic policy

an empirical analysis of the Brazilian economy

Author: Fabiana Fontes Rocha

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 166

View: 828

Transactions

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Life insurance

Page: N.A

View: 9220

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