Search Results: calculating-credibility

Calculating Credibility

How Leaders Assess Military Threats

Author: Daryl G. Press

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 9780801474156

Category: History

Page: 218

View: 6188

Calculating Credibility examines—and ultimately rejects—a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis—not past actions—determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment—sports, gambling, warfare—competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

Fighting for Credibility

US Reputation and International Politics

Author: Frank P. Harvey,John Mitton

Publisher: University of Toronto Press

ISBN: 1487511760

Category: Political Science

Page: 312

View: 9877

When Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people in Syria, he clearly crossed President Barack Obama’s "red line." At the time, many argued that the president had to bomb in order to protect America's reputation for toughness, and therefore its credibility, abroad; others countered that concerns regarding reputation were overblown, and that reputations are irrelevant for coercive diplomacy. Whether international reputations matter is the question at the heart of Fighting for Credibility. For skeptics, past actions and reputations have no bearing on an adversary’s assessment of credibility; power and interests alone determine whether a threat is believed. Using a nuanced and sophisticated theory of rational deterrence, Frank P. Harvey and John Mitton argue the opposite: ignoring reputations sidesteps important factors about how adversaries perceive threats. Focusing on cases of asymmetric US encounters with smaller powers since the end of the Cold War including Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Syria, Harvey and Mitton reveal that reputations matter for credibility in international politics. This dynamic and deeply documented study successfully brings reputation back to the table of foreign diplomacy.

Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets, Data Mining and Granular Computing

11th International Conference, RSFDGrC 2007, Toronto, Canada, May 14-16, 2007

Author: Aijun An

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3540725296

Category: Computers

Page: 585

View: 7958

This volume contains the papers selected for presentation at the 11th Int- national Conference on Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets, Data Mining, and Granular Computing (RSFDGrC 2007), a part of the Joint Rough Set Symposium (JRS 2007) organized by Infobright Inc. and York University. JRS 2007 was held for the ?rst time during May 14–16, 2007 in MaRS Discovery District, Toronto, Canada. It consisted of two conferences: RSFDGrC 2007 and the Second Int- national Conference on Rough Sets and Knowledge Technology (RSKT 2007). The two conferences that constituted JRS 2007 investigated rough sets as an emerging methodology established more than 25 years ago by Zdzis law Pawlak. Roughsettheoryhasbecomeanintegralpartofdiversehybridresearchstreams. In keeping with this trend, JRS 2007 encompassed rough and fuzzy sets, kno- edgetechnologyanddiscovery,softandgranularcomputing,dataprocessingand mining, while maintaining an emphasis on foundations and applications. RSFDGrC 2007 followed in the footsteps of well-established international initiatives devoted to the dissemination of rough sets research, held so far in Canada, China, Japan, Poland, Sweden, and the USA. RSFDGrC was ?rst - ganized as the 7th International Workshop on Rough Sets, Data Mining and Granular Computing held in Yamaguchi, Japan in 1999. Its key feature was to stress the role of integrating intelligent information methods to solve real-world, large, complex problems concerned with uncertainty and fuzziness. RSFDGrC achieved the status of a bi-annual international conference, starting from 2003 in Chongqing, China.

Reputation And International Politics

Author: Jonathan Mercer

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 1501724479

Category: Political Science

Page: 248

View: 4830

Mercer examines reputation formation in a series of crises before World War I. He tests competing arguments, one from deterrence theory, the other from social psychology, to see which better predicts and explains how reputations form. He extends his findings to address contemporary crises such as the Gulf War, and considers how culture, gender and nuclear weapons affect reputation.

Targeting Civilians in War

Author: Alexander B. Downes

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801446341

Category: History

Page: 315

View: 3506

By exploring several historical cases (some as recent as the 1991 Persian Gulf War), the author examines why democratic and authoritarian governments alike will sometimes deliberately kill large numbers of civilians as a matter of military strategy.

Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts

Risk Classification, Credibility and Bonus-Malus Systems

Author: Michel Denuit,Xavier Marechal,Sandra Pitrebois,Jean-Francois Walhin

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780470517413

Category: Mathematics

Page: 384

View: 3388

There are a wide range of variables for actuaries to consider when calculating a motorist’s insurance premium, such as age, gender and type of vehicle. Further to these factors, motorists’ rates are subject to experience rating systems, including credibility mechanisms and Bonus Malus systems (BMSs). Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts presents a comprehensive treatment of the various experience rating systems and their relationships with risk classification. The authors summarize the most recent developments in the field, presenting ratemaking systems, whilst taking into account exogenous information. The text: Offers the first self-contained, practical approach to a priori and a posteriori ratemaking in motor insurance. Discusses the issues of claim frequency and claim severity, multi-event systems, and the combinations of deductibles and BMSs. Introduces recent developments in actuarial science and exploits the generalised linear model and generalised linear mixed model to achieve risk classification. Presents credibility mechanisms as refinements of commercial BMSs. Provides practical applications with real data sets processed with SAS software. Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts is essential reading for students in actuarial science, as well as practicing and academic actuaries. It is also ideally suited for professionals involved in the insurance industry, applied mathematicians, quantitative economists, financial engineers and statisticians.

The Trusted Advisor

Author: David H. Maister,Robert Galford,Charles Green

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 147110964X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 224

View: 5502

Beside talent and a sterling portfolio, what can world-class consultants like Deloitte & Touche, Societe General and Towers Perrin boast has helped them achieve success in our entrepreneurial economy? They all have the inside track on the indispensable "Trusted Advisor" model for client relationships, created by renowned experts Charles Green and Robert Galford. Now Green and Galford have teamed up with the acclaimed David Maister in order to help their latest high-profile, fast-forward client: you. In this straightforward guide, Maister, Green and Galford show readers that the key to professional success goes well beyond technical mastery or expertise. Today, it's all about the vital ability to earn the client's trust and thereby win the ability to influence them. In these high risk times, trust is more valuable than gold. With this critical, highly detailed and accessible resource, readers will learn the five crucial steps for developing, managing and improving client confidence. For both emerging and established entrepreneurs and consultants, THE TRUSTED ADVISOR is the first truly indispensable business book of the decade.

Journal of Actuarial Practice

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Insurance

Page: N.A

View: 4724

Introduction to Credibility Theory

Author: Thomas N. Herzog

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781566987646

Category: Credibility theory (Insurance)

Page: 337

View: 8751

This text has been named as an approved reference in preparing for the SOA Exam C and the CAS Exam 4. Several chapters have been adopted as syllabus references for the SOA Group and Health specialty Design and Pricing Fellowship exam. Credibility modeling is a proven approach for analyzing unique product designs. This text presents a wide variety of credibility models in an easy-to-read style, and in so doing, traces the historical development of the subject. The Bayesian approach to credibility is emphasized. The text concentrates on basic statistical concepts, leaving more sophisticated theoretical concepts for a more advanced treatment elsewhere. It contains worked examples, a large number of end-of-chapter exercises and an extensive bibliography. Practical applications of credibility theory are presented in the Appendices. In the rapidly evolving healthcare environment, data credibility is more important than ever. The Fourth Edition of this text includes three case studies relating to healthcare issues. A separate solutions manual for the text exercises is also available.

China's Ascent

Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics

Author: Robert S. Ross,Zhu Feng

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801456983

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 4565

Assessments of China's importance on the world stage usually focus on a single dimension of China's increasing power, rather than on the multiple sources of China's rise, including its economic might and the continuing modernization of its military. This book offers multiple analytical perspectives—constructivist, liberal, neorealist—on the significance of the many dimensions of China's regional and global influence. Distinguished authors consider the likelihood of conflict and peaceful accommodation as China grows ever stronger. They look at the changing position of China "from the inside": How do Chinese policymakers evaluate the contemporary international order and what are the regional and global implications of that worldview? The authors also address the implications of China's increasing power for Chinese policymaking and for the foreign policies of Korea, Japan, and the United States. Contributors: Robert Art, Brandeis University; Avery Goldstein, University of Pennsylvania; G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University; Byung-Kook Kim, Korea University; Jonathan Kirshner, Cornell University; Jeffrey W. Legro, University of Virginia; Jack S. Levy, Rutgers University; Qin Yaqing, China Foreign Affairs University; Robert S. Ross, Boston College; Akio Takahara, University of Tokyo; Tang Shiping, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Wei Ling, China Foreign Affairs University; Zhu Feng, Peking University

Making and Unmaking Nations

The Origins and Dynamics of Genocide in Contemporary Africa

Author: Scott Straus

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455677

Category: Political Science

Page: 408

View: 491

In Making and Unmaking Nations, Scott Straus seeks to explain why and how genocide takes place—and, perhaps more important, how it has been avoided in places where it may have seemed likely or even inevitable. To solve that puzzle, he examines postcolonial Africa, analyzing countries in which genocide occurred and where it could have but did not. Why have there not been other Rwandas? Straus finds that deep-rooted ideologies—how leaders make their nations—shape strategies of violence and are central to what leads to or away from genocide. Other critical factors include the dynamics of war, the role of restraint, and the interaction between national and local actors in the staging of campaigns of large-scale violence. Grounded in Straus's extensive fieldwork in contemporary Africa, the study of major twentieth-century cases of genocide, and the literature on genocide and political violence, Making and Unmaking Nations centers on cogent analyses of three nongenocide cases (Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal) and two in which genocide took place (Rwanda and Sudan). Straus’s empirical analysis is based in part on an original database of presidential speeches from 1960 to 2005. The book also includes a broad-gauge analysis of all major cases of large-scale violence in Africa since decolonization. Straus’s insights into the causes of genocide will inform the study of political violence as well as giving policymakers and nongovernmental organizations valuable tools for the future.

Waging War, Planning Peace

U.S. Noncombat Operations and Major Wars

Author: Aaron Rapport

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455634

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 1789

As the U.S. experience in Iraq following the 2003 invasion made abundantly clear, failure to properly plan for risks associated with postconflict stabilization and reconstruction can have a devastating impact on the overall success of a military mission. In Waging War, Planning Peace, Aaron Rapport investigates how U.S. presidents and their senior advisers have managed vital noncombat activities while the nation is in the midst of fighting or preparing to fight major wars. He argues that research from psychology—specifically, construal level theory—can help explain how individuals reason about the costs of postconflict noncombat operations that they perceive as lying in the distant future. In addition to preparations for "Phase IV" in the lead-up to the Iraq War, Rapport looks at the occupation of Germany after World War II, the planned occupation of North Korea in 1950, and noncombat operations in Vietnam in 1964 and 1965. Applying his insights to these cases, he finds that civilian and military planners tend to think about near-term tasks in concrete terms, seriously assessing the feasibility of the means they plan to employ to secure valued ends. For tasks they perceive as further removed in time, they tend to focus more on the desirability of the overarching goals they are pursuing rather than the potential costs, risks, and challenges associated with the means necessary to achieve these goals. Construal level theory, Rapport contends, provides a coherent explanation of how a strategic disconnect can occur. It can also show postwar planners how to avoid such perilous missteps.

Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy

Iraq, 9/11, and Misguided Reform

Author: Paul R. Pillar

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231527802

Category: Political Science

Page: 416

View: 4837

A career of nearly three decades with the CIA and the National Intelligence Council showed Paul R. Pillar that intelligence reforms, especially measures enacted since 9/11, can be deeply misguided. They often miss the sources that underwrite failed policy and misperceive our ability to read outside influences. They also misconceive the intelligence-policy relationship and promote changes that weaken intelligence-gathering operations. In this book, Pillar confronts the intelligence myths Americans have come to rely on to explain national tragedies, including the belief that intelligence drives major national security decisions and can be fixed to avoid future failures. Pillar believes these assumptions waste critical resources and create harmful policies, diverting attention away from smarter reform, and they keep Americans from recognizing the limits of obtainable knowledge. Pillar revisits U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War and highlights the small role intelligence played in those decisions, and he demonstrates the negligible effect that America's most notorious intelligence failures had on U.S. policy and interests. He then reviews in detail the events of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, condemning the 9/11 commission and the George W. Bush administration for their portrayals of the role of intelligence. Pillar offers an original approach to better informing U.S. policy, which involves insulating intelligence management from politicization and reducing the politically appointed layer in the executive branch to combat slanted perceptions of foreign threats. Pillar concludes with principles for adapting foreign policy to inevitable uncertainties.

Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society

Author: Casualty Actuarial Society

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Casualty insurance

Page: N.A

View: 7629

List of members for the years 1914-20 are included in v. 1-7, after which they are continued in the Year book of the society, begun in 1922.

Federal Register

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Delegated legislation

Page: N.A

View: 690

Designing Web Navigation

Optimizing the User Experience

Author: James Kalbach

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

ISBN: 9780596553784

Category: Computers

Page: 416

View: 2596

Thoroughly rewritten for today's web environment, this bestselling book offers a fresh look at a fundamental topic of web site development: navigation design. Amid all the changes to the Web in the past decade, and all the hype about Web 2.0 and various "rich" interactive technologies, the basic problems of creating a good web navigation system remain. Designing Web Navigation demonstrates that good navigation is not about technology-it's about the ways people find information, and how you guide them. Ideal for beginning to intermediate web designers, managers, other non-designers, and web development pros looking for another perspective, Designing Web Navigation offers basic design principles, development techniques and practical advice, with real-world examples and essential concepts seamlessly folded in. How does your web site serve your business objectives? How does it meet a user's needs? You'll learn that navigation design touches most other aspects of web site development. This book: Provides the foundations of web navigation and offers a framework for navigation design Paints a broad picture of web navigation and basic human information behavior Demonstrates how navigation reflects brand and affects site credibility Helps you understand the problem you're trying to solve before you set out to design Thoroughly reviews the mechanisms and different types of navigation Explores "information scent" and "information shape" Explains "persuasive" architecture and other design concepts Covers special contexts, such as navigation design for web applications Includes an entire chapter on tagging While Designing Web Navigation focuses on creating navigation systems for large, information-rich sites serving a business purpose, the principles and techniques in the book also apply to small sites. Well researched and cited, this book serves as an excellent reference on the topic, as well as a superb teaching guide. Each chapter ends with suggested reading and a set of questions that offer exercises for experiencing the concepts in action.

Principles

Author: Ray Dalio

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 1982112387

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 592

View: 9092

#1 New York Times Bestseller “Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —The New York Times Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.

Weapons of Mass Migration

Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy

Author: Kelly M. Greenhill

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801457424

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

View: 1148

At first glance, the U.S. decision to escalate the war in Vietnam in the mid-1960s, China's position on North Korea's nuclear program in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the EU resolution to lift what remained of the arms embargo against Libya in the mid-2000s would appear to share little in common. Yet each of these seemingly unconnected and far-reaching foreign policy decisions resulted at least in part from the exercise of a unique kind of coercion, one predicated on the intentional creation, manipulation, and exploitation of real or threatened mass population movements. In Weapons of Mass Migration, Kelly M. Greenhill offers the first systematic examination of this widely deployed but largely unrecognized instrument of state influence. She shows both how often this unorthodox brand of coercion has been attempted (more than fifty times in the last half century) and how successful it has been (well over half the time). She also tackles the questions of who employs this policy tool, to what ends, and how and why it ever works. Coercers aim to affect target states' behavior by exploiting the existence of competing political interests and groups, Greenhill argues, and by manipulating the costs or risks imposed on target state populations. This "coercion by punishment" strategy can be effected in two ways: the first relies on straightforward threats to overwhelm a target's capacity to accommodate a refugee or migrant influx; the second, on a kind of norms-enhanced political blackmail that exploits the existence of legal and normative commitments to those fleeing violence, persecution, or privation. The theory is further illustrated and tested in a variety of case studies from Europe, East Asia, and North America. To help potential targets better respond to-and protect themselves against-this kind of unconventional predation, Weapons of Mass Migration also offers practicable policy recommendations for scholars, government officials, and anyone concerned about the true victims of this kind of coercion-the displaced themselves.

Complex deterrence

strategy in the global age

Author: T. V. Paul,Patrick M. Morgan,James J. Wirtz

Publisher: University Of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226650029

Category: History

Page: 345

View: 8157

As the costs of a preemptive foreign policy in Iraq have become clear, strategies such as containment and deterrence have been gaining currency among policy makers. This comprehensive book offers an agenda for the contemporary practice of deterrence—especially as it applies to nuclear weapons—in an increasingly heterogeneous global and political setting. Moving beyond the precepts of traditional deterrence theory, this groundbreaking volume offers insights for the use of deterrence in the modern world, where policy makers may encounter irrational actors, failed states, religious zeal, ambiguous power relationships, and other situations where the traditional rules of statecraft do not apply. A distinguished group of contributors here examines issues such as deterrence among the Great Powers; the problems of regional and nonstate actors; and actors armed with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. Complex Deterrence will be a valuable resource for anyone facing the considerable challenge of fostering security and peace in the twenty-first century.

How Many Licks?

Or, How to Estimate Damn Near Anything

Author: Aaron Santos

Publisher: Running Press Adult

ISBN: 0762439181

Category: Mathematics

Page: 176

View: 9296

How many licks to the center of a Tootsie Pop? How many people are having sex at this moment? How long would it take a monkey on a typewriter to produce the plays of Shakespeare? For all those questions that keep you up at night, here's the way to answer them. And the beauty of it is that it's all approximate! Using Enrico Fermi's theory of approximation, Santos brings the world of numbers into perspective. For puzzle junkies and trivia fanatics, these 70 word puzzles will show the reader how to take a bit of information, add what they already know, and extrapolate an answer. Santos has done the impossible: make math and the multiple possibilities of numbers fun and informative. Can you really cry a river? Is it possible to dig your way out of jail with just a teaspoon and before your life sentence is up? Taking an academic subject and using it as the prism to view everyday off-the-wall questions as math problems to be solved is a natural step for the lovers of sudoku, cryptograms, word puzzles, and other thought-provoking games.

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