Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons
Author: Neil Narang
Category: Political Science
This volume examines the causes and consequences of nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies. The real-world importance of nuclear weapons has led to the production of a voluminous scholarly literature on the causes and consequences of nuclear weapons proliferation. Missing from this literature, however, is a more nuanced analysis that moves beyond a binary treatment of nuclear weapons possession, to an exploration of how different nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies may influence the proliferation of nuclear weapons and subsequent security outcomes. This volume addresses this deficit by focusing on the causes and consequences of nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies. It is the aim of this book to advance the development of a new empirical research agenda that brings systematic research methods to bear on new dimensions of the nuclear weapons phenomenon. Prior to the contributions in this volume, there has been little evidence to suggest that nuclear postures and policies have a meaningful impact on the spread of nuclear weapons or security outcomes. This book brings together a new generation of scholars, advancing innovative theoretical positions, and performing quantitative tests using original data on nuclear postures, nonproliferation policies, and WMD proliferation. Together, the chapters in this volume make novel theoretical, empirical, and methodological contributions to the field of nuclear weapons proliferation. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international relations and security studies.
This edited volume offers a systematic account of the process of nuclear proliferation and its consequences, using quantitative research methods. The real-world importance of nuclear weapons has led to the production of a voluminous scholarly literature on nuclear proliferation. Missing from this debate is an analysis of how states acquire nuclear weapons and a systematic empirical examination of how nuclear weapons may affect the security and the diplomacy of their possessors. The chapters in this book address these twin deficits ...
The chapters of this proposed volume are intended to shed light on the diverse themes surrounding this very important issue area in international security. Each of the six major sections addresses an aspect of nuclear proliferation that will be critical in determining the future trajectory of global politics in the years to come. The first section examines the major thematic issues underlying the contemporary discourse on nuclear proliferation. How do we understand this period in proliferation? What accounts for a taboo on the use of nuclear weapons so far and will it survive? What is the present state of nuclear deterrence models built during the Cold War? What is the relationship between the pursuit of civilian nuclear energy and the risks of proliferation? Why are we witnessing a move away from non-proliferation to counter-proliferation? The second section gives an overview of the evolving nuclear policies of the five established nuclear powers: the USA, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and the People's Republic of China. Section three looks at the three de facto nuclear states: India, Pakistan and Israel. The fourth section examines the three problem areas in the proliferation matrix today – Iran, North Korea and the potent mix of non-state actors and nuclear weapons. The fifth section sheds light on an important issue often ignored during discussions of nuclear proliferation – cases where states have made a deliberate policy choice of either renouncing their nuclear weapons programme, or have decided to remain a threshold state. The cases of South Africa, Egypt and Japan will be the focus of this section. The final section will examine the present state of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, which most observers agree is currently facing a crisis of credibility. The three pillars of this regime – the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) – will be examined. This is followed by an analysis of the present trends and prospects for US-Russia nuclear arms control. The impact of missile defenses and the US-India civilian nuclear energy co-operation pact will be examined so as to ascertain whether they have weakened or strengthened the global non-proliferation regime. The chapters in this volume aim to document the increasing complexity of the global nuclear proliferation dynamic and the inability of the international community to come to terms with a rapidly changing strategic milieu. The future, in all likelihood, will be very different from the past, and the chapters in this volume will try to develop a framework that may help gain a better understanding of the forces that will shape the nuclear proliferation debate in the years to come. Proposed Contents Introduction – Overview Part 1: Thematic Issues The Second Nuclear Age The Nuclear Taboo Nuclear Deterrence Nuclear Energy and Non-Proliferation Non-Proliferation and Counter Proliferation Non-State Actors and Nuclear Weapons Part 2: The Five Nuclear Powers USA Russia United Kingdom France People's Republic of China Part 3: De Facto Nuclear States India Pakistan Israel Part 4: The ‘Problem’ States Iran North Korea Part 5: The ‘Threshold’ States South Africa Japan Egypt Part 6: The Global Non-Proliferation Regime The NPT The CTBT The FMCT US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control The Impact of Missile Defenses The US-India Nuclear Deal The Future: What It May Hold In Store Conclusion
Once dismissed as ineffectual, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has in the past twenty years emerged as a powerful international organization. Member states allow the IAEA to render judgment on matters vital to peace and security while nations around the globe comply with its rules and commands on proliferation, safety, and a range of other issues. Robert L. Brown details the IAEA’s role in facilitating both control of nuclear weapons and the safe exploitation of nuclear power. As he shows, the IAEA has acquired a surprising amount of power as states, for political and technological reasons, turn to it to supply policy cooperation and to act as an agent for their security and safety. The agency’s success in gaining and holding authority rests in part on its ability to apply politically neutral expertise that produces beneficial policy outcomes. But Brown also delves into the puzzle of how an agency created by states to aid cooperation has acquired power over them.
The sharing of nuclear weapons technology between states is unexpected, because nuclear weapons are such a powerful instrument in international politics, but sharing is not rare. This book proposes a theory to explain nuclear sharing and surveys its rich history from its beginnings in the Second World War.
Hagerty analyzes how India and Pakistan interacted in diplomatic and military crises before their 1998 nuclear tests. He presents detailed studies of the January 1987 Indo-Pakistani crisis, precipitated by India's Brasstacks military exercises, and the 1990 confrontation over Kashmir. Hagerty concludes that relations between India and Pakistan in recent years support the argument that nuclear proliferation does not necessarily destabilize international relations and may even reduce the risk of war.
This volume is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons, and Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. develop alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. Through three scenario models, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post–Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post–Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.
In May 1998 one-sixth of humanity was thrust into the bomb's shadow by nuclear test explosions in India and Pakistan. This collection of historic public statements, recent writings by scholars, and resources, gathers the diverse voices, traditions, and approaches of the anti-nuclear movement in the two countries. It attempts to understand and challenge the causes and consequences of the nuclearization of South Asia, and to confront governments that see nuclear weapons as moments of glory in an otherwise dismal contemporary history.
This new volume explores what the acquisition of nuclear weapons means for the life of a protracted conflict. The book argues that the significance of the possession of nuclear weapons in conflict resolution has been previously overlooked. Saira Khan argues that the acquisition of nuclear weapons by states keeps conflicts alive indefinitely, as they are maintained by frequent crises and low-to-medium intensity violence, rather than escalating to full-scale wars. This theory therefore emphasises the importance of nuclear weapons in both war-avoidance and peace-avoidance. The book opens with a section explaining its theory of conflict transformation with nuclear weapons, before testing this against the case study of the India--Pakistan protracted conflict in South Asia. This book will be of much interest to students of strategic studies, IR and Asian politics and security.