Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, Economic Interdependence and War lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between nations. Taking a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, Dale Copeland demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American relations since 1985 and for the direction these relations will likely take over the next two decades. Economic Interdependence and War offers sweeping new insights into historical and contemporary global politics and the actual nature of democratic versus economic peace.
The claim that open trade promotes peace has sparked heated debate among scholars and policymakers for centuries. Until recently, however, this claim remained untested and largely unexplored. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict clarifies the state of current knowledge about the effects of foreign commerce on political-military relations and identifies the avenues of new research needed to improve our understanding of this relationship. The contributions to this volume offer crucial insights into the political economy of national security, the causes of war, and the politics of global economic relations. Edward D. Mansfield is Hum Rosen Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Brian M. Pollins is Associate Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and a Research Fellow at the Mershon Center.
This book explores one of the most important current topics in international relations: whether trade diminishes or enhances conflict. Mark J. C. Crescenzi adopts an original perspective, arguing that the 'exit costs' confronting states - how hard it would be for them to replace the trade they are threatening to cut - determines the credibility of the threat and the effect of such trade on the likelihood of political conflict.
What causes war? How can wars be prevented? Scholars and policymakers have sought the answers to these questions for centuries. Although wars continue to occur, recent scholarship has made progress toward developing more sophisticated and perhaps more useful theories on the causes and prevention of war. This volume includes essays by leading scholars on contemporary approaches to understanding war and peace. The essays include expositions, analyses, and critiques of some of the more prominent and enduring explanations of war. Several authors discuss realist theories of war, which focus on the distribution of power and the potential for offensive war. Others examine the prominent hypothesis that the spread of democracy will usher in an era of peace. In light of the apparent increase in nationalism and ethnic conflict, several authors present hypotheses on how nationalism causes war and how such wars can be controlled. Contributors also engage in a vigorous debate on whether international institutions can promote peace. In a section on war and peace in the changing international system, several authors consider whether rising levels of international economic independence and environmental scarcity will influence the likelihood of war. Contributors: Dale C. Copeland, Charles L. Glaser, Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, Carl Kaysen, Robert O. Keohane, Charles A. Kupchan, Clifford A. Kupchan, David A. Lake, Christopher Layne, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Edward D. Mansfield, Lisa L. Martin, John J. Mearsheimer, John Orme, John M. Owen, Donald Rothchild, John Gerard Ruggie, Jack Snyder, Stephen Van Evera, Alexander Wendt.
إن اسم فيينا يبدو مألوفاً للغاية في مدينة صوفيا البلغارية وذلك من خلال محل للفطائر ومقهى يتمتعان بشهرة كبيرة ويحملان الأسم ذاته «فيينا». من خلال أحد نوافذ ذلك المقهى المطل على شارع «تسار ليبيراتور» يجلس الناس ملتفين حول الموائد الحديدية صغيرة الحجم والمطلية باللون الأبيض، يحتسون مشروب القهوة ذا الحجم الكبير من النوع غير التقليدي مثل القهوة البلغارية أو المقدونية أو التركية أو الصربية أو اليونانية، ويعتمد ذلك في المقام الأول على مكان ونوع المقهى الذي نحتسي فيه القهوه، حيث تقدم هنا بطريقة غير تقليدية في فناجين ذات حجم كبير تعلوها الكريمة المرشوش عليها قدر من الشيكولاته، تماماً مثل التي تقدم في فيينا. هناك أيضاً عدة أنواع من الحلويات والفطائر الفيينية -نسبة إلى فيينا- المحفوظة في فاترينة زجاجية مضاءة بمصابيح نيون. حيث نرى كعكة كريم الفانيليا الصفراء المخلوطة بأخرى خضراء مما يعطي اللون الرمادي الغث وذلك يعود إلى إضافة قطع من الخوخ والفراولة. لكن كل ذلك لا يضاهي الجاتوه الفييني الحقيقي المليء بالمكونات والتفاصيل الرائعة. في الواقع أن كل ما يقدم في مثل هذا المقهى لا علاقة له بالمدن الأوروبية الكبيرة إلا الاسم فقط
Economic Statecraft, Interdependence and National Security
Author: Jean-Marc F. Blanchard
The essays here address the relationship between economic interdependence and international conflict, the political economy of economic sanctions, and the role of economic incentives in international statecraft.
The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict
Author: Richard N. Rosecrance
Publisher: MIT Press
A century ago, Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and the continent plunged into World War I, which killed millions, toppled dynasties, and destroyed empires. Today, as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes, scholars and policy experts are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the world of 1914. Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous great power rivals? Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars? Can leaders manage power relationships peacefully? Or will East Asia's territorial and maritime disputes trigger a larger conflict, just as rivalries in the Balkans did in 1914?In The Next Great War?, experts reconsider the causes of World War I and explore whether the great powers of the twenty-first century can avoid the mistakes of Europe's statesmen in 1914 and prevent another catastrophic conflict. They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914 -- but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences and early action to bring great powers together will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great war.ContributorsAlan Alexandroff, Graham Allison, Richard N. Cooper, Charles S. Maier, Steven E. Miller, Joseph S. Nye Jr., T. G. Otte, David K. Richards, Richard N. Rosecrance, Kevin Rudd, Jack Snyder, Etel Solingen, Arthur A. Stein, Stephen Van Evera
This book examines the strategic interactions among China, the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asian States in the context of China’s rise and globalization after the cold war. Engaging the mainstream theoretical debates in international relations, the author introduces a new theoretical framework—institutional realism—to explain the institutionalization of world politics in the Asia-Pacific after the cold war. Institutional realism suggests that deepening economic interdependence creates a condition under which states are more likely to conduct a new balancing strategy—institutional balancing, i.e., countering pressures or threats through initiating, utilizing, and dominating multilateral institutions—to pursue security under anarchy. To test the validity of institutional realism, Kai He examines the foreign policies of the U.S., Japan, the ASEAN states, and China toward four major multilateral institutions, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Plus Three (APT), and East Asian Summit (EAS). Challenging the popular pessimistic view regarding China’s rise, the book concludes that economic interdependence and structural constraints may well soften the "dragon’s teeth." China’s rise does not mean a dark future for the region. Institutional Balancing in the Asia Pacific will be of great interest to policy makers and scholars of Asian security, international relations, Chinese foreign policy, and U.S. foreign policy.
This new book unites in one volume some of the most prominent critiques of Alexander Wendt's constructivist theory of international relations and includes the first comprehensive reply by Wendt. Partly reprints of benchmark articles, partly new original critiques, the critical chapters are informed by a wide array of contending theories ranging from realism to poststructuralism. The collected leading theorists critique Wendt’s seminal book Social Theory of International Politics and his subsequent revisions. They take issue with the full panoply of Wendt’s approach, such as his alleged positivism, his critique of the realist school, the conceptualism of identity, and his teleological theory of history. Wendt’s reply is not limited to rebuttal only. For the first time, he develops his recent idea of quantum social science, as well as its implications for theorising international relations. This unique volume will be a necessary companion to Wendt’s book for students and researchers seeking a better understanding of his work, and also offers one of the most up-to-date collections on constructivist theorizing.