Search Results: forecasting-nuclear-proliferation-in-the-21st-century

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter,Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova

Publisher: Stanford Security Studies

ISBN: 9780804769723

Category: Political Science

Page: 312

View: 1234

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Theory volume consists of an introduction and nine additional chapters devoted to key theoretical issues regarding the dynamics of nuclear weapons (non) proliferation.

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter,Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova

Publisher: Stanford Security Studies

ISBN: 9780804769709

Category: Political Science

Page: 471

View: 6363

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

The Role of Theory (|).

Author: Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9780804769716

Category: Nuclear nonproliferation

Page: 295

View: 6512

Arms Control and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East

Author: Bernd W. Kubbig,Sven-Eric Fikenscher

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136491171

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

View: 3151

This edited volume provides a systematic analysis of the missile threat and proliferation issue in the Middle East region. The question of how to increase the level of security in the Middle East is not a new one, given the conflict-ridden nature of the region. The solution attempted for this predicament has typically revolved around intense arms build-ups, a strategy which can prove self-defeating due to the subsequent countermeasures employed by neighbouring states. Arms Control and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East focuses on the strategic proliferation of arms, with a specific emphasis on missiles. This unique emphasis enables the contributors to provide a dynamic new perspective on conceptual and political disarmament efforts, thereby distinguishing this volume from many other related works on the region, which deal mainly with weapons of mass destruction. The book also explores the possibility of a reduction in weapon arsenals, examining a more promising cooperative security concept which includes confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs). This book will be of much interest to students of arms control, Middle Eastern politics, Gulf Security, war and conflict studies, security studies and IR.

The Ethics of Nuclear Weapons Dissemination

Moral Dilemmas of Aspiration, Avoidance and Prevention

Author: Thomas E. Doyle, II

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136229485

Category: Political Science

Page: 174

View: 5317

This book examines the moral dilemmas of nuclear dissemination, and the justifications of both nuclear pursuit and avoidance by contemporary states. Applying Constructivist methodologies and moral theory, the author analyses a core set of moral dilemmas that ensnare decision-makers amongst state and non-state nuclear aspirants, as well as amongst states committed to preventing horizontal proliferation. The book shows that the character, structure and implications of these dilemmas have not yet been adequately understood or appreciated, and that such an understanding is necessary for an effective set of nonproliferation policies. Furthermore, it shows that the dilemmas’ force and political policy import are evident in the 'discourses' that diverse actors undertake to defend their nuclear choices, and how the dilemmas of nuclear aspirants are implicated in those of nuclear preventers. The author advocates a number of policy recommendations that reinforce some already made by scholars and experts but, more importantly, others that advise significantly different courses of action. The book reveals how the moral dilemmas of nuclear aspiration, avoidance, and prevention constitute the security dilemmas and paradoxes that comprise much of the 21st century security environment. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international relations, ethics, and international security studies.

International Security

The Contemporary Agenda

Author: Roland Dannreuther

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0745656889

Category: Political Science

Page: 340

View: 1897

International Security is a cutting-edge analysis of the key security challenges and developments in the post-Cold War world. Drawing on a wide range of contemporary examples, from the Iraq war to the rise of China, it is an essential guide for students and policy makers seeking to understand the theoretical and empirical debates over the fast-changing nature of international security today. The book is organized into four main parts. Part 1 provides an analytical framework for the book, identifying the most significant post-Cold War shifts in international security and recent theoretical developments in security studies. Part 2 analyses the root causes for contemporary warfare, the dilemmas and debates over military intervention, and the role played by the UN, NATO and other organizations in maintaining international peace and security. Part 3 assesses the challenges of environmental security, including the threat of resource-based conflict, most notably over oil and water, and the perceived security challenges of international migration. Part 4 discusses the new security challenges posed by international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and cyber warfare. It explores the strategies and policies adopted by the United States, particularly in the aftermath of 9/11 and assesses the implications of the rise of China and other emerging powers. This book will be essential reading for students and analysts of international relations, international security and strategic studies.

Strategic Nuclear Sharing

Author: J. Schofield

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137298456

Category: Political Science

Page: 217

View: 4441

The sharing of nuclear weapons technology between states is unexpected, because nuclear weapons are such a powerful instrument in international politics, but sharing is not rare. This book proposes a theory to explain nuclear sharing and surveys its rich history from its beginnings in the Second World War.

Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran

Nuclear Dominoes?

Author: C. Hobbs,M. Moran

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137369817

Category: Political Science

Page: 123

View: 7400

This book challenges the widely held assumption that a nuclear-armed Iran would provoke a proliferation cascade in the Middle East. Arguing that a domino effect is by no means inevitable, the authors set out a number of policy measures that could be enacted by the international community to reduce this risk.

The Obama Doctrine

American Grand Strategy Today

Author: Colin Dueck

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0190202645

Category: Political Science

Page: 256

View: 4133

By mid-2015, the Obama presidency will be entering its final stages, and the race among the successors in both parties will be well underway. And while experts have already formed a provisional understanding of the Obama administration's foreign policy goals, the shape of the "Obama Doctrine" is finally coming into full view. It has been consistently cautious since Obama was inaugurated in 2009, but recent events in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Far East have led an increasingly large number of foreign policy experts to conclude that caution has transformed into weakness. In The Obama Doctrine, Colin Dueck analyzes and explains what the Obama Doctrine in foreign policy actually is, and maps out the competing visions on offer from the Republican Party. Dueck, a leading scholar of US foreign policy, contends it is now becoming clear that Obama's policy of international retrenchment is in large part a function of his emphasis on achieving domestic policy goals. There have been some successes in the approach, but there have also been costs. For instance, much of the world no longer trusts the US to exert its will in international politics, and America's adversaries overseas have asserted themselves with increasing frequency. The Republican Party will target these perceived weaknesses in the 2016 presidential campaign and develop competing counter-doctrines in the process. Dueck explains that within the Republican Party, there are two basic impulses vying with each other: neo-isolationism and forceful internationalism. Dueck subdivides each impulse into the specific agenda of the various factions within the party: Tea Party nationalism, neoconservatism, conservative internationalism, and neo-isolationism. He favors a realistic but forceful US internationalism, and sees the willingness to disengage from the world by some elements of the party as dangerous. After dissecting the various strands, he articulates an agenda of forward-leaning American realism--that is, a policy in which the US engages with the world and is willing to use threats of force for realist ends. The Obama Doctrine not only provides a sharp appraisal of foreign policy in the Obama era; it lays out an alternative approach to marshaling American power that will help shape the foreign policy debate in the run-up to the 2016 elections.

Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology

Author: Matthew Bunn,William C. Potter,Martin B. Malin

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107163765

Category: History

Page: 394

View: 7406

Leading experts provide a comprehensive examination of global efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation by blocking the illicit supply of key technologies.

21 Lektionen für das 21. Jahrhundert

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Publisher: C.H.Beck

ISBN: 3406727794

Category: History

Page: 459

View: 7380

Yuval Noah Harari ist der Weltstar unter den Historikern. In «Eine kurze Geschichte der Menschheit» erzählte er vom Aufstieg des Homo Sapiens zum Herrn der Welt. In «Homo Deus» ging es um die Zukunft unserer Spezies. Sein neues Buch schaut auf das Hier und Jetzt und konfrontiert uns mit den drängenden Fragen unserer Zeit. Wie unterscheiden wir Wahrheit und Fiktion im Zeitalter der Fake News? Was sollen wir unseren Kindern beibringen? Wie können wir in unserer unübersichtlichen Welt moralisch handeln? Wie bewahren wir Freiheit und Gleichheit im 21. Jahrhundert? Seit Jahrtausenden hat die Menschheit über den Fragen gebrütet, wer wir sind und was wir mit unserem Leben anfangen sollen. Doch jetzt setzen uns die heraufziehende ökologische Krise, die wachsende Bedrohung durch Massenvernichtungswaffen und der Aufstieg neuer disruptiver Technologien unter Zeitdruck. Bald schon wird irgendjemand darüber entscheiden müssen, wie wir die Macht nutzen, die künstliche Intelligenz und Biotechnologie bereit halten. Dieses Buch will möglichst viele Menschen dazu anregen, sich an den großen Debatten unserer Zeit zu beteiligen, damit die Antworten nicht von den blinden Kräften des Marktes gegeben werden.

Proliferation and Emerging Nuclear Order in the Twenty-first Century

Author: N. S. Sisodia,V. Krishnappa,Priyanka Singh

Publisher: Academic Foundation

ISBN: 9788171887521

Category: History

Page: 122

View: 9627

Papers presented at the 10th Asian Security Conference, held at New Delhi on 4th February 2008.

Nuclear Proliferation and the Dilemma of Peace in the Twenty-First Century

Author: David A. Valone

Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing

ISBN: 1443820342

Category: Science

Page: 140

View: 6597

On September 27, 2007, Quinnipiac University and the Albert Schweitzer Institute hosted former US President Jimmy Carter and several internationally-known experts at a forum to discuss nuclear disarmament. This book includes papers and transcripts of talks delivered at that conference. It contains the transcript of President Carter’s keynote address, in which he discusses his experiences in the White House when he and Soviet premier Leonid Brezhnev tangled over the size of their respective nuclear arsenals. Carter relates, “I knew the entire time I was president, that 26 minutes after we detected the launching of an intercontinental ballistic missile, that that missile would strike Washington DC or New York or any other target that the Soviets had chosen.” This imminent nuclear threat, Carter notes, strengthened his commitment to peace after he left the White House; the very first conference he scheduled at the Carter Center in Atlanta was on nuclear disarmament. Other papers include talks by Jonathan Granoff, President of the Global Security Institute, who discusses the collective denial that the world seems to have toward nuclear weapons; Ira Helfand, who describes the physical, medical and biological impacts of a massive nuclear explosion should such a disaster occur in or near an urban center; Hirotami Yamada offers a heart-wrenching account of how, as a boy, he survived the atomic bomb blast in his hometown of Nagasaki in August 1945 while the rest of his family perished; Dr. Neil Araya, of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, discusses the connection between public health and nuclear weapons. Other papers consider historical, philosophical, linguistic and educational issues related to nuclear weapons and the ongoing struggle for peace.

Command and Control

Die Atomwaffenarsenale der USA und die Illusion der Sicherheit

Author: Eric Schlosser

Publisher: C.H.Beck

ISBN: 3406655963

Category: Political Science

Page: 598

View: 5164

Arkansas, 18. September 1980, abends: Bei Routinearbeiten an einer gefechtsbereiten Titan-II-Rakete rutscht einem Arbeiter ein Schraubenschlüssel aus der Hand. »O Mann, das ist nicht gut”, ist sein erster Gedanke. Das Missgeschick führt zu einer Kettenreaktion, der größte je gebaute Atomsprengkopf droht zu explodieren ... Weltweit sind Tausende von Atomsprengköpfen stationiert. Viele von ihnen werden rund um die Uhr gefechtsbereit gehalten, damit sie innerhalb einer Minute starten und eine unvorstellbare Verwüstung anrichten können. Was das für die Soldaten in den unterirdischen Bunkern heißt und welche Gefahren von den scharfen Atomwaffen ausgehen, ist uns kaum bewusst. Der Journalist und Bestseller-Autor Eric Schlosser deckt in diesem zeithistorischen Thriller auf der Grundlage von geheimen Unterlagen des Verteidigungsministeriums und Interviews mit Augenzeugen einen dramatischen Unfall in einem Atomwaffensilo der USA auf, der um ein Haar mehrere amerikanische Großstädte vernichtet hätte. In diesen Krimi einer am Ende gerade noch gelungenen Rettung flicht er die Geschichte der amerikanischen Atomrüstung ein. Er erzählt, wie Raketen und Sprengköpfe rund um die Uhr abschussbereit gehalten werden und wie die Menschen ticken, die ihr Leben für die Sicherheit der Massenvernichtungswaffen einsetzen. Eine spektakuläre Geschichte des Kalten Krieges und der Atomrüstung «von unten»: aus der Sicht der Soldaten in den Silos, die mit einem falschen Handgriff die Apokalypse auslösen können. «Atemberaubend, ... mitreißend ... Eric Schlosser verbindet profunde Informationen mit der Erzählung haarsträubender Details zu zahlreichen Unfällen und zeigt, dass auch die besten Kontrollsysteme nicht menschlichen Fehlern, Missgeschicken und der wachsenden technologischen Komplexität gewachsen sind.» Publisher’s Weekly »Ebenso anschaulich wie erschütternd ... Eine umfassende und beunruhigende Untersuchung über die Illusion der Sicherheit von Atomwaffen.” Kirkus Reviews «Die weltweiten Atwomwaffenarsenale sind nicht so sicher, wie sie sein sollten – das ist die Botschaft dieses faszinierenden und aufwühlenden Buches.» Lee H. Hamilton, ehemaliger Kongress-Abgeordneter der USA und Co-Vorsitzender der Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future

Developing a Theoretical Model of Counterproliferation for the 21st Century

Author: Brian Bates,Chris McHorney

Publisher: Edwin Mellen Press

ISBN: 9780773477674

Category: History

Page: 235

View: 7085

Examining counterproliferation as a global phenomenon, the authors use an in-depth analysis of the Counterproliferation Initiative to develop a theoretical model of counterproliferation for the 21st century. Arguing that existing counterproliferation policy is the product of bureaucratic competition, the authors propose several modifications of existing policy. In the second half of the book, they use four case studies (Cuban Missile Crisis, Persian Gulf War, Osirak Reactor Raid, and Sudan) to identify factors that might contribute to an effective counterproliferation strategy. More specifically, the authors explore the relationship between the strength of an intelligence-gathering apparatus and the successful or unsuccessful elimination of weapons of mass destruction. The study concludes with observations and limited predictions regarding the future of counterproliferation.

Nuclear Disarmament in the Twenty-first Century

Author: Wade L. Huntley,Mitsuru Kurosawa,Kazumi Mizumoto

Publisher: Lulu.com

ISBN: 1411622286

Category: Political Science

Page: 390

View: 4339

This work provides a comprehensive examination of the current state and future prospects for nuclear disarmament at the turn of the century. The work juxtaposes a sober review of progress made during the last decade with a proactive agenda of proposals for new disarmament initiatives in the next decade. Taken together, the contributions to this volume suggest that, contrary to current conventional wisdom, the increasing global cache of nuclear weapons and the waning progress on nuclear disarmament of recent years need not become the defining features of the post-Cold War era. Rather, by examining the new conditions that have emerged at the dawn of the of the 21st century through both national and issue-based perspectives, this work reveals how the likelihood of continuing uncertainty and change in world affairs creates opportunities, as well as the need, for renewed progress toward significant nuclear disarmament.

Open Source Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century

New Approaches and Opportunities

Author: C. Hobbs,M. Moran,D. Salisbury

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137353325

Category: Political Science

Page: 191

View: 5104

This edited book provides an insight into the new approaches, challenges and opportunities that characterise open source intelligence (OSINT) at the beginning of the twenty-first century. It does so by considering the impacts of OSINT on three important contemporary security issues: nuclear proliferation, humanitarian crises and terrorism.

U.S. nuclear policy in the 21st century a fresh look at national strategy and requirements: final report

Author: N.A

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

ISBN: 9781428981324

Category:

Page: N.A

View: 1939

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