Search Results: forecasting-nuclear-proliferation-in-the-21st-century

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter,Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova

Publisher: Stanford Security Studies

ISBN: 9780804769723

Category: Political Science

Page: 312

View: 566

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Theory volume consists of an introduction and nine additional chapters devoted to key theoretical issues regarding the dynamics of nuclear weapons (non) proliferation.

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter,Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova

Publisher: Stanford Security Studies

ISBN: 9780804769709

Category: Political Science

Page: 471

View: 9718

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.

A Perpetual Menace

Nuclear Weapons and International Order

Author: William Walker

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136594639

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 7972

Written by a leading scholar in the field of nuclear weapons and international relations, this book examines ‘the problem of order’ arising from the existence of weapons of mass destruction. This central problem of international order has its origins in the nineteenth century, when industrialization and the emergence of new sciences, technologies and administrative capabilities greatly expanded states’ abilities to inflict injury, ushering in the era of total war. It became acute in the mid-twentieth century, with the invention of the atomic bomb and the pre-eminent role ascribed to nuclear weapons during the Cold War. It became more complex after the end of the Cold War, as power structures shifted, new insecurities emerged, prior ordering strategies were called into question, and as technologies relevant to weapons of mass destruction became more accessible to non-state actors as well as states. William Walker explores how this problem is conceived by influential actors, how they have tried to fashion solutions in the face of many predicaments, and why those solutions have been deemed effective and ineffective, legitimate and illegitimate, in various times and contexts.

Confronting the Bomb

A Short History of the World Nuclear Disarmament Movement

Author: Lawrence S. Wittner

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 0804771243

Category: History

Page: 272

View: 3513

Confronting the Bomb tells the dramatic, inspiring story of how citizen activism helped curb the nuclear arms race and prevent nuclear war. This abbreviated version of Lawrence Wittner's award-winning trilogy, The Struggle Against the Bomb, shows how a worldwide, grassroots campaign—the largest social movement of modern times—challenged the nuclear priorities of the great powers and, ultimately, thwarted their nuclear ambitions. Based on massive research in the files of peace and disarmament organizations and in formerly top secret government records, extensive interviews with antinuclear activists and government officials, and memoirs and other published materials, Confronting the Bomb opens a unique window on one of the most important issues of the modern era: survival in the nuclear age. It covers the entire period of significant opposition to the bomb, from the final stages of the Second World War up to the present. Along the way, it provides fascinating glimpses of the interaction of key nuclear disarmament activists and policymakers, including Albert Einstein, Harry Truman, Albert Schweitzer, Norman Cousins, Nikita Khrushchev, Bertrand Russell, Andrei Sakharov, Linus Pauling, Dwight Eisenhower, Harold Macmillan, John F. Kennedy, Randy Forsberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, Helen Caldicott, E.P. Thompson, and Ronald Reagan. Overall, however, it is a story of popular mobilization and its effectiveness.

Arms Control and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East

Author: Bernd W. Kubbig,Sven-Eric Fikenscher

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136491171

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

View: 2655

This edited volume provides a systematic analysis of the missile threat and proliferation issue in the Middle East region. The question of how to increase the level of security in the Middle East is not a new one, given the conflict-ridden nature of the region. The solution attempted for this predicament has typically revolved around intense arms build-ups, a strategy which can prove self-defeating due to the subsequent countermeasures employed by neighbouring states. Arms Control and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East focuses on the strategic proliferation of arms, with a specific emphasis on missiles. This unique emphasis enables the contributors to provide a dynamic new perspective on conceptual and political disarmament efforts, thereby distinguishing this volume from many other related works on the region, which deal mainly with weapons of mass destruction. The book also explores the possibility of a reduction in weapon arsenals, examining a more promising cooperative security concept which includes confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs). This book will be of much interest to students of arms control, Middle Eastern politics, Gulf Security, war and conflict studies, security studies and IR.

The Ethics of Nuclear Weapons Dissemination

Moral Dilemmas of Aspiration, Avoidance and Prevention

Author: Thomas E. Doyle, II

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1136229485

Category: Political Science

Page: 174

View: 5356

This book examines the moral dilemmas of nuclear dissemination, and the justifications of both nuclear pursuit and avoidance by contemporary states. Applying Constructivist methodologies and moral theory, the author analyses a core set of moral dilemmas that ensnare decision-makers amongst state and non-state nuclear aspirants, as well as amongst states committed to preventing horizontal proliferation. The book shows that the character, structure and implications of these dilemmas have not yet been adequately understood or appreciated, and that such an understanding is necessary for an effective set of nonproliferation policies. Furthermore, it shows that the dilemmas’ force and political policy import are evident in the 'discourses' that diverse actors undertake to defend their nuclear choices, and how the dilemmas of nuclear aspirants are implicated in those of nuclear preventers. The author advocates a number of policy recommendations that reinforce some already made by scholars and experts but, more importantly, others that advise significantly different courses of action. The book reveals how the moral dilemmas of nuclear aspiration, avoidance, and prevention constitute the security dilemmas and paradoxes that comprise much of the 21st century security environment. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international relations, ethics, and international security studies.

Seeing the Light: The Case for Nuclear Power in the 21st Century

Author: Scott L. Montgomery,Thomas Graham, Jr

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1108418228

Category: Law

Page: N.A

View: 8302

Nuclear power is not an option for the future but an absolute necessity. Global threats of climate change and lethal air pollution, killing millions each year, make it clear that nuclear and renewable energy must work together, as non-carbon sources of energy. Fortunately, a new era of growth in this energy source is underway in developing nations, though not yet in the West. Seeing the Light is the first book to clarify these realities and discuss their implications for coming decades. Readers will learn how, why, and where the new nuclear era is happening, what new technologies are involved, and what this means for preventing the proliferation of weapons. This book is the best work available for becoming fully informed about this key subject, for students, the general public, and anyone interested in the future of energy production, and, thus, the future of humanity on planet Earth.

International Security

The Contemporary Agenda

Author: Roland Dannreuther

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0745656889

Category: Political Science

Page: 340

View: 4658

International Security is a cutting-edge analysis of the key security challenges and developments in the post-Cold War world. Drawing on a wide range of contemporary examples, from the Iraq war to the rise of China, it is an essential guide for students and policy makers seeking to understand the theoretical and empirical debates over the fast-changing nature of international security today. The book is organized into four main parts. Part 1 provides an analytical framework for the book, identifying the most significant post-Cold War shifts in international security and recent theoretical developments in security studies. Part 2 analyses the root causes for contemporary warfare, the dilemmas and debates over military intervention, and the role played by the UN, NATO and other organizations in maintaining international peace and security. Part 3 assesses the challenges of environmental security, including the threat of resource-based conflict, most notably over oil and water, and the perceived security challenges of international migration. Part 4 discusses the new security challenges posed by international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and cyber warfare. It explores the strategies and policies adopted by the United States, particularly in the aftermath of 9/11 and assesses the implications of the rise of China and other emerging powers. This book will be essential reading for students and analysts of international relations, international security and strategic studies.

Strategic Nuclear Sharing

Author: J. Schofield

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137298456

Category: Political Science

Page: 217

View: 8366

The sharing of nuclear weapons technology between states is unexpected, because nuclear weapons are such a powerful instrument in international politics, but sharing is not rare. This book proposes a theory to explain nuclear sharing and surveys its rich history from its beginnings in the Second World War.

The Obama Doctrine

American Grand Strategy Today

Author: Colin Dueck

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0190202645

Category: Political Science

Page: 256

View: 6935

By mid-2015, the Obama presidency will be entering its final stages, and the race among the successors in both parties will be well underway. And while experts have already formed a provisional understanding of the Obama administration's foreign policy goals, the shape of the "Obama Doctrine" is finally coming into full view. It has been consistently cautious since Obama was inaugurated in 2009, but recent events in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Far East have led an increasingly large number of foreign policy experts to conclude that caution has transformed into weakness. In The Obama Doctrine, Colin Dueck analyzes and explains what the Obama Doctrine in foreign policy actually is, and maps out the competing visions on offer from the Republican Party. Dueck, a leading scholar of US foreign policy, contends it is now becoming clear that Obama's policy of international retrenchment is in large part a function of his emphasis on achieving domestic policy goals. There have been some successes in the approach, but there have also been costs. For instance, much of the world no longer trusts the US to exert its will in international politics, and America's adversaries overseas have asserted themselves with increasing frequency. The Republican Party will target these perceived weaknesses in the 2016 presidential campaign and develop competing counter-doctrines in the process. Dueck explains that within the Republican Party, there are two basic impulses vying with each other: neo-isolationism and forceful internationalism. Dueck subdivides each impulse into the specific agenda of the various factions within the party: Tea Party nationalism, neoconservatism, conservative internationalism, and neo-isolationism. He favors a realistic but forceful US internationalism, and sees the willingness to disengage from the world by some elements of the party as dangerous. After dissecting the various strands, he articulates an agenda of forward-leaning American realism--that is, a policy in which the US engages with the world and is willing to use threats of force for realist ends. The Obama Doctrine not only provides a sharp appraisal of foreign policy in the Obama era; it lays out an alternative approach to marshaling American power that will help shape the foreign policy debate in the run-up to the 2016 elections.

Nuclear Proliferation and International Security

Author: Sverre Lodgaard,Bremer Maerli

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134110006

Category: History

Page: 384

View: 8222

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has long been key in non-proliferation and disarmament activities. The Treaty is the major international legal obstacle for states seeking nuclear weapon capabilities. In retrospect, and despite setbacks, the overall impact of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has been significant and gratifying. Its continued success is by no means guaranteed. As old nuclear dangers persist and new ones evolve, policies to halt nuclear proliferation are more disparate than at any other time. Nuclear weapons remain an essential part of the security policies of leading states and many developmental states maintain strong nuclear weapon ambitions, while terrorists have actively been seeking nuclear capabilities. In search of an overarching strategy that recognizes both the flaws of the existing non-proliferation regime, and the value of some of the corrections proposed by regime critics, this volume assesses contemporary efforts to stem nuclear proliferation. In doing so, Nuclear Proliferation and International Security examines a number of cases with a view to recommending better non-proliferation tools and strategies. The contributors comprise renowned international scholars, who have been selected to obtain the best possible analyses of critically important issues related to international non-proliferation dynamics and the future integrity of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Nuclear Politics

Author: Alexandre Debs,Nuno P. Monteiro

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1107108098

Category: Political Science

Page: 496

View: 5706

A comprehensive theory of the causes of nuclear proliferation, alongside an in-depth analysis of sixteen historical cases of nuclear development.

Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran

Nuclear Dominoes?

Author: C. Hobbs,M. Moran

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 1137369817

Category: Political Science

Page: 123

View: 9617

This book challenges the widely held assumption that a nuclear-armed Iran would provoke a proliferation cascade in the Middle East. Arguing that a domino effect is by no means inevitable, the authors set out a number of policy measures that could be enacted by the international community to reduce this risk.

Nuclear Logics

Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East

Author: Etel Solingen

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 9781400828029

Category: Political Science

Page: 424

View: 2033

Nuclear Logics examines why some states seek nuclear weapons while others renounce them. Looking closely at nine cases in East Asia and the Middle East, Etel Solingen finds two distinct regional patterns. In East Asia, the norm since the late 1960s has been to forswear nuclear weapons, and North Korea, which makes no secret of its nuclear ambitions, is the anomaly. In the Middle East the opposite is the case, with Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Libya suspected of pursuing nuclear-weapons capabilities, with Egypt as the anomaly in recent decades. Identifying the domestic conditions underlying these divergent paths, Solingen argues that there are clear differences between states whose leaders advocate integration in the global economy and those that reject it. Among the former are countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, whose leaders have had stronger incentives to avoid the political, economic, and other costs of acquiring nuclear weapons. The latter, as in most cases in the Middle East, have had stronger incentives to exploit nuclear weapons as tools in nationalist platforms geared to helping their leaders survive in power. Solingen complements her bold argument with other logics explaining nuclear behavior, including security dilemmas, international norms and institutions, and the role of democracy and authoritarianism. Her account charts the most important frontier in understanding nuclear proliferation: grasping the relationship between internal and external political survival. Nuclear Logics is a pioneering book that is certain to provide an invaluable resource for researchers, teachers, and practitioners while reframing the policy debate surrounding nonproliferation.

Mission Failure

America and the World in the Post-Cold War Era

Author: Michael Mandelbaum

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0190469471

Category: HISTORY

Page: 352

View: 1967

"In Mission Failure, Mandelbaum argues that, in the past 25 years, U.S. foreign policy has undergone a significant shift. Historically, U.S. foreign policy was oriented primarily toward threat reduction, but the U.S. military has turned in recent years to missions that are largely humanitarian and socio-political. Mandelbaum argues that ideologically-driven foreign policy--that which seeks to reconstruct societies along Western lines--generally leads to mission failure"--

Does America Need a Foreign Policy?

Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century

Author: Henry Kissinger

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

ISBN: 0684855682

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 350

View: 9483

The former Secretary of State under Richard Nixon argues that a coherent foreign policy is essential and lays out his own plan for getting the nation's international affairs in order.

Contesting the Future of Nuclear Power

A Critical Global Assessment of Atomic Energy

Author: Benjamin K Sovacool

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company

ISBN: 9813107979

Category: Science

Page: 308

View: 2911

This book provides a concise but rigorous appraisal about the future of nuclear power and the presumed nuclear renaissance. It does so by assessing the technical, economic, environmental, political, and social risks related to all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium mills and mines to nuclear reactors and spent fuel storage facilities. In each case, the book argues that the costs of nuclear power significantly outweigh its benefits. It concludes by calling for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as a better path towards an affordable, secure, and socially acceptable future. The prospect of a global nuclear renaissance could change the way that energy is produced and used the world over. Sovacool takes a hard look at who would benefit — mostly energy companies and manufacturers — and who would suffer — mostly taxpayers, those living near nuclear facilities, and electricity customers. This book is a must-read for anyone even remotely concerned about a sustainable energy future, and also for those with a specific interest in modern nuclear power plants.

Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century

Lessons from the Cold War for a New Era of Strategic Piracy

Author: Thérèse Delpech

Publisher: Rand Corporation

ISBN: 0833059440

Category: Political Science

Page: 196

View: 348

Deterrence remains a primary doctrine for dealing with the threat of nuclear weapons in the 21st century. The author reviews the history of nuclear deterrence and calls for a renewed intellectual effort to address the relevance of concepts such as first strike, escalation, extended deterrence, and other Cold War-era strategies in today's complex world of additional superpowers, smaller nuclear powers, and nonstate actors.

The Role of Theory

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9780804769730

Category:

Page: N.A

View: 1455

The Future of NATO

Author: James M. Goldgeier

Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations

ISBN: 0876094671

Category: Political Science

Page: 33

View: 1900

Takes on the question of how NATO, having successfully kept the peace in Europe in the twentieth century, can adapt to the challenges of the twenty-first. Contends that NATO retains value for the United States and Europe, but that it must expand its vision of collective defense in order to remain relevant and effective. This means recognizing the full range of threats that confront NATO members today and affirming that the alliance will respond collectively to an act (whether by an outside state or a nonstate entity) that imperils the political or economic security or territorial integrity of a member state. NATO has been a cornerstone of security in Europe, and of U.S. foreign policy, for six decades. But its ability to continue playing such a central role is unclear. This report takes a sober look at what the alliance and its members must do to maintain NATO's relevance in the face of today's strategic environment.

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