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Nonproliferation Policy and Nuclear Posture

Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Author: Neil Narang,Erik Gartzke,Matthew Kroenig

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317406753

Category: Political Science

Page: 354

This volume examines the causes and consequences of nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies. The real-world importance of nuclear weapons has led to the production of a voluminous scholarly literature on the causes and consequences of nuclear weapons proliferation. Missing from this literature, however, is a more nuanced analysis that moves beyond a binary treatment of nuclear weapons possession, to an exploration of how different nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies may influence the proliferation of nuclear weapons and subsequent security outcomes. This volume addresses this deficit by focusing on the causes and consequences of nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies. It is the aim of this book to advance the development of a new empirical research agenda that brings systematic research methods to bear on new dimensions of the nuclear weapons phenomenon. Prior to the contributions in this volume, there has been little evidence to suggest that nuclear postures and policies have a meaningful impact on the spread of nuclear weapons or security outcomes. This book brings together a new generation of scholars, advancing innovative theoretical positions, and performing quantitative tests using original data on nuclear postures, nonproliferation policies, and WMD proliferation. Together, the chapters in this volume make novel theoretical, empirical, and methodological contributions to the field of nuclear weapons proliferation. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international relations and security studies.

India's Emerging Nuclear Posture

Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal

Author: Ashley J. Tellis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

ISBN: 9780833027818

Category: Political Science

Page: 885

After a hiatus of almost 24 years, India startled the international community by resuming nuclear testing in May 1998. Pakistan responded later the same month with five nuclear tests of its own. The belief that the nuclear tests in South Asia have not only altered the strategic environment in the region but also transformed New Delhi into a nuclear weapons power recurs constantly in Indian strategic and political analyses. This book will address these issues in the context of a broader understanding of India's strategic interests, its institutional structures, and its security goals. The author argues that the truth of the matter is much more complex than most Indian analysts believe and that despite demonstrating and ability to successfully undertake nuclear explosions, India still has some way to go before it can acquire the capabilties that would make it a consequential nuclear power.

The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy

Why Strategic Superiority Matters

Author: Matthew Kroenig

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0190849193

Category: Political Science

Page: 240

For decades, the reigning scholarly wisdom about nuclear weapons policy has been that the United States only needs the ability to absorb an enemy nuclear attack and still be able to respond with a devastating counterattack. So long as the US, or any other nation, retains such an assured retaliation capability, no sane leader would intentionally launch a nuclear attack against it, and nuclear deterrence will hold. According to this theory, possessing more weapons than necessary for a second-strike capability is illogical. This argument is reasonable, but, when compared to the empirical record, it raises an important puzzle. Empirically, we see that the United States has always maintained a nuclear posture that is much more robust than a mere second-strike capability. In The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy, Matthew Kroenig challenges the conventional wisdom and explains why a robust nuclear posture, above and beyond a mere second-strike capability, contributes to a state's national security goals. In fact, when a state has a robust nuclear weapons force, such a capability reduces its expected costs in a war, provides it with bargaining leverage, and ultimately enhances nuclear deterrence. This book provides a novel theoretical explanation for why military nuclear advantages translate into geopolitical advantages. In so doing, it helps resolve one of the most-intractable puzzles in international security studies. Buoyed by an innovative thesis and a vast array of historical and quantitative evidence, The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy will force scholars to reconsider their basic assumptions about the logic of nuclear deterrence.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

Confronting Today's Threats

Author: George Bunn,Christopher F. Chyba

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

ISBN: 0815713673

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

What role should nuclear weapons play in today's world? How can the United States promote international security while safeguarding its own interests? U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy informs this debate with an analysis of current nuclear weapons policies and strategies, including those for deterring, preventing, or preempting nuclear attack; preventing further proliferation, to nations and terrorists; modifying weapons designs; and revising the U.S. nuclear posture. Presidents Bush and Clinton made major changes in U.S. policy after the Cold War, and George W. Bush's administration made further, more radical changes after 9/11. Leaked portions of 2001's Nuclear Posture Review, for example, described more aggressive possible uses for nuclear weapons. This important volume examines the significance of such changes and suggests a way forward for U.S. policy, emphasizing stronger security of nuclear weapons and materials, international compliance with nonproliferation obligations, attention to the demand side of proliferation, and reduced reliance on nuclear weapons in U.S. foreign policy.

Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era

Regional Powers and International Conflict

Author: Vipin Narang

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 1400850401

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

The world is in a second nuclear age in which regional powers play an increasingly prominent role. These states have small nuclear arsenals, often face multiple active conflicts, and sometimes have weak institutions. How do these nuclear states—and potential future ones—manage their nuclear forces and influence international conflict? Examining the reasoning and deterrence consequences of regional power nuclear strategies, this book demonstrates that these strategies matter greatly to international stability and it provides new insights into conflict dynamics across important areas of the world such as the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. Vipin Narang identifies the diversity of regional power nuclear strategies and describes in detail the posture each regional power has adopted over time. Developing a theory for the sources of regional power nuclear strategies, he offers the first systematic explanation of why states choose the postures they do and under what conditions they might shift strategies. Narang then analyzes the effects of these choices on a state's ability to deter conflict. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, he shows that, contrary to a bedrock article of faith in the canon of nuclear deterrence, the acquisition of nuclear weapons does not produce a uniform deterrent effect against opponents. Rather, some postures deter conflict more successfully than others. Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era considers the range of nuclear choices made by regional powers and the critical challenges they pose to modern international security.

Opaque Nuclear Proliferation

Methodological and Policy Implications

Author: Benjamin Frankel

Publisher: Psychology Press

ISBN: 9780714634180

Category: History

Page: 201

This examination of nuclear arms control addresses the question of what kind of posture do second generation nuclear weapons states adopt in a world in which the presumption of non-proliferation is accepted?

Israel and the Bomb

Author: Avner Cohen

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231104839

Category: Political Science

Page: 470

Cohen focuses on a two-decade period from about 1950 until 1970, during which David Ben-Gurion's vision of making Israel a nuclear-weapon state was realized. He weaves together the story of the formative years of Israel's nuclear program, from the founding of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission in 1952, to the alliance with France that gave Israel the sophisticated technology it needed, to the failure of American intelligence to identify the Dimona Project for what it was, to the negotiations between President Nixon and Prime Minister Meir that led to the current policy of secrecy. Cohen also analyzes the complex reasons Israel concealed its nuclear program - from concerns over the Arab reaction and the negative effect of the debate at home to consideration of America's commitment to nonproliferation.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

Author: William James Perry,Brent Scowcroft,Charles D. Ferguson

Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations

ISBN: 0876094205

Category: Political Science

Page: 125

The report notes that in the near term nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security. For this reason it emphasizes the importance of maintaining a safe, secure, and reliable deterrent nuclear force and makes recommendations on this front. The report also offers measures to advance important goals such as preventing nuclear terrorism and bolstering the nuclear nonproliferation regime--Foreword.

Exporting the Bomb

Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Author: Matthew Kroenig

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 080145767X

Category: Political Science

Page: N.A

In a vitally important book for anyone interested in nuclear proliferation, defense strategy, or international security, Matthew Kroenig points out that nearly every country with a nuclear weapons arsenal received substantial help at some point from a more advanced nuclear state. Why do some countries help others to develop nuclear weapons? Many analysts assume that nuclear transfers are driven by economic considerations. States in dire economic need, they suggest, export sensitive nuclear materials and technology-and ignore the security risk-in a desperate search for hard currency. Kroenig challenges this conventional wisdom. He finds that state decisions to provide sensitive nuclear assistance are the result of a coherent, strategic logic. The spread of nuclear weapons threatens powerful states more than it threatens weak states, and these differential effects of nuclear proliferation encourage countries to provide sensitive nuclear assistance under certain strategic conditions. Countries are more likely to export sensitive nuclear materials and technology when it would have the effect of constraining an enemy and less likely to do so when it would threaten themselves. In Exporting the Bomb, Kroenig examines the most important historical cases, including France's nuclear assistance to Israel in the 1950s and 1960s; the Soviet Union's sensitive transfers to China from 1958 to 1960; China's nuclear aid to Pakistan in the 1980s; and Pakistan's recent technology transfers, with the help of "rogue" scientist A. Q. Khan, from 1987 to 2002. Understanding why states provide sensitive nuclear assistance not only adds to our knowledge of international politics but also aids in international efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons.

Paper Tigers

China's Nuclear Posture

Author: Jeffrey G. Lewis

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781138466555

Category:

Page: N.A

China�s nuclear arsenal has long been an enigma. The arsenal has historically been small, based almost exclusively on land-based ballistic missiles, maintained at a low level of alert, and married to a no-first-use doctrine � all choices that would seem to invite attack in a crisis. Chinese leaders, when they have spoken about nuclear weapons, have articulated ideas that sound odd to the Western ear. Mao Zedong�s oft-quoted remark that �nuclear weapons are a paper tiger� seems to be bluster or madness. China�s nuclear forces are now too important to remain a mystery. Yet Westerners continue to disagree about basic factual information concerning one of the world�s most important nuclear-weapons states. This Adelphi book documents and explains the evolution of China�s nuclear forces in terms of historical, bureaucratic and ideological factors. There is a strategic logic at work, but that logic is mediated through politics, bureaucracy and ideology. The simplest explanation is that Chinese leaders, taken as a whole, have tended to place relatively little emphasis on the sort of technical details that dominated US discussions regarding deterrence. Such profound differences in thinking about nuclear weapons could lead to catastrophic misunderstanding in the event of a military crisis between Beijing and Washington.

The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy

Why Strategic Superiority Matters

Author: Matthew Kroenig

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0190849193

Category: Political Science

Page: 240

For decades, the reigning scholarly wisdom about nuclear weapons policy has been that the United States only needs the ability to absorb an enemy nuclear attack and still be able to respond with a devastating counterattack. So long as the US, or any other nation, retains such an assured retaliation capability, no sane leader would intentionally launch a nuclear attack against it, and nuclear deterrence will hold. According to this theory, possessing more weapons than necessary for a second-strike capability is illogical. This argument is reasonable, but, when compared to the empirical record, it raises an important puzzle. Empirically, we see that the United States has always maintained a nuclear posture that is much more robust than a mere second-strike capability. In The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy, Matthew Kroenig challenges the conventional wisdom and explains why a robust nuclear posture, above and beyond a mere second-strike capability, contributes to a state's national security goals. In fact, when a state has a robust nuclear weapons force, such a capability reduces its expected costs in a war, provides it with bargaining leverage, and ultimately enhances nuclear deterrence. This book provides a novel theoretical explanation for why military nuclear advantages translate into geopolitical advantages. In so doing, it helps resolve one of the most-intractable puzzles in international security studies. Buoyed by an innovative thesis and a vast array of historical and quantitative evidence, The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy will force scholars to reconsider their basic assumptions about the logic of nuclear deterrence.

Chinese Nuclear Proliferation

How Global Politics Is Transforming China's Weapons Buildup and Modernization

Author: Susan Turner Haynes

Publisher: U of Nebraska Press

ISBN: 1612348440

Category: History

Page: 208

While the world's attention is focused on the nuclearization of North Korea and Iran and the nuclear brinkmanship between India and Pakistan, China is believed to have doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal, making it "the forgotten nuclear power," as described in Foreign Affairs. Susan Turner Haynes analyzes China's buildup and its diversification of increasingly mobile, precise, and sophisticated nuclear weapons. Haynes provides context and clarity on this complex global issue through an analysis of extensive primary source research and lends insight into questions about why China is the only nuclear weapon state recognized under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that continues to pursue qualitative and quantitative advancements to its nuclear force. As the gap between China's nuclear force and the forces of the nuclear superpowers narrows against the expressed interest of many nuclear and nonnuclear states, Chinese Nuclear Proliferation offers policy prescriptions to curtail China's nuclear growth and to assuage fears that the "American world order" presents a direct threat to China's national security. Presenting technical concepts with minimal jargon in a straightforward style, this book will be of use to casual China watchers and military experts alike.

Peacebuilding

Author: Dennis J. D. Sandole

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0745655807

Category: Political Science

Page: 264

Preventing violent conflicts and establishing comprehensive lasting peace in some of the world’s most turbulent regions has become the new global imperative. But to be effective, peacebuilding must be a multilateral, not a unilateral process. Even for the world’s sole surviving superpower, promoting and sustaining durable peace requires communication, co-ordination, co-operation, and collaboration between local, national and international actors, nongovernmental as well as governmental. In this book, Dennis Sandole explores the theory and practice of peacebuilding, discussing the differences and similarities between core aspects of peace processes, namely violent conflict prevention; conflict management; conflict settlement; conflict resolution and conflict transformation. Assuming no prior knowledge on the part of the student reader, the volume distinguishes between proactive and reactive peacebuilding as strategies to pre-empt or otherwise respond to global problems, such as identity conflicts, failing/failed states, terrorism, pandemics, poverty, forced migrations, climate change, ecological degradation, and their combined effects. Drawing on a wide range of conflicts such as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, East Timor, Haiti, South Africa and Macedonia, the book debates the 'lessons learned' from past experiences of reactive as well as proactive peacebuilding, plus the challenges which lie ahead for those striving to bring about sustainable peace, security and stability to war-torn or otherwise fragile regions of the globe.

India and Nuclear Asia

Forces, Doctrine, and Dangers

Author: Yogesh Joshi,Frank O'Donnell

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 9781626166172

Category: Political Science

Page: 235

India's nuclear profile, doctrine, and practices have evolved rapidly since the country’s nuclear breakout in 1998. However, the outside world's understanding of India's doctrinal debates, forward-looking strategy, and technical developments are still two decades behind the present. India and Nuclear Asia will fill that gap in our knowledge by focusing on the post-1998 evolution of Indian nuclear thought, its arsenal, the triangular rivalry with Pakistan and China, and New Delhi's nonproliferation policy approaches. Yogesh Joshi and Frank O'Donnell show how India's nuclear trajectory has evolved in response to domestic, regional, and global drivers. The authors argue that emerging trends in all three states are elevating risks of regional inadvertent and accidental escalation. These include the forthcoming launch of naval nuclear forces within an environment of contested maritime boundaries; the growing employment of dual-use delivery vehicles; and the emerging preferences of all three states to employ missiles early in a conflict. These dangers are amplified by the near-absence of substantive nuclear dialogue between these states, and the growing ambiguity of regional strategic intentions. Based on primary-source research and interviews, this book will be important reading for scholars and students of nuclear deterrence and India's international relations, as well as for military, defense contractor, and policy audiences both within and outside South Asia.

Pakistan's Nuclear Policy

A Minimum Credible Deterrence

Author: Zafar Khan

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317676009

Category: Social Science

Page: 198

In May 1998, in reaction to India’s nuclear weapons tests, Pakistan tested six nuclear weapons. Following this, the country opted for a policy of minimum deterrence, and within a year Pakistan had altered its policy stance by adding the modifier of minimum ‘credible’ deterrence. This book looks at how this seemingly innocuous shift seriously impacted on Pakistan’s nuclear policy direction and whether the concept of minimum has lost its significance in the South Asian region’s changed/changing strategic environment. After providing a brief historical background exploring why and how Pakistan carried out the nuclear development program, the book questions why Pakistan could not sustain the minimum deterrence that it had conceptualized in the immediate aftermath of the 1998 test. It examines the conceptual theoretical framework of the essentials of minimum deterrence in order to question whether Pakistan’s nuclear policy remained consistent with this, as well as to discover the rudimentary factors that are responsible for the inconsistencies with regard to minimum deterrence conceived in this study. The book goes on to look at the policy options that Pakistan had after acquiring the nuclear capability, and what the rationale was for selecting minimum deterrence. The book not only highlights Pakistan deterrent force building, but also analyzes closely Pakistan’s doctrinal posture of first use option. Furthermore, it examines the policy towards arms control and disarmament, and discusses whether these individual policy orientations are consistent with the minimum deterrence. Conceptually providing a deeper understanding of Pakistan’s post-1998 nuclear policy, this book critically examines whether the minimum deterrence conceived could be sustained both at the theoretical and operational levels. It will be a useful contribution in the field of Nuclear Policy, Security Studies, Asian Politics, Proliferation/Non-Proliferation Studies, and Peace Studies. This book will be of interest to policy makers, scholars, and students of nuclear policy, nuclear proliferation and arms control related research.

India's Nuclear Policy

Author: Bharat Karnad

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 0275999467

Category: History

Page: 236

This book examines the Indian nuclear policy, doctrine, strategy and posture, clarifying the elastic concept of credible minimum deterrence at the center of the country's approach to nuclear security. This concept, Karnad demonstrates, permits the Indian nuclear forces to be beefed up, size and quality-wise, and to acquire strategic reach and clout, even as the qualifier minimum suggests an overarching concern for moderation and economical use of resources, and strengthens India's claims to be a responsible nuclear weapon state. Based on interviews with Indian political leaders, nuclear scientists, and military and civilian nuclear policy planners, it provides unique insights into the workings of India's nuclear decision-making and deterrence system. Moreover, by juxtaposing the Indian nuclear policy and thinking against the theories of nuclear war and strategic deterrence, nuclear escalation, and nuclear coercion, offers a strong theoretical grounding for the Indian approach to nuclear war and peace, nuclear deterrence and escalation, nonproliferation and disarmament, and to limited war in a nuclearized environment. It refutes the alarmist notions about a nuclear flashpoint in South Asia, etc. which derive from stereotyped analysis of India-Pakistan wars, and examines India's likely conflict scenarios involving China and, minorly, Pakistan.

Counterterrorism

Author: Ronald Crelinsten

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0745658490

Category: Political Science

Page: 248

Terrorism has emerged as one of the most problematic issues facing national governments and the international community in the 21st century. But how is it possible to counter terrorism in a world in which governance is still dominated by the nation-state? Are we seeing new forms of terrorist activity in the wake of 9/11? Are pre-9/11 approaches still valid? How can we combat and control diverse threats of multiple origin? Who should be responsible for countering terrorism and in what circumstances? In this incisive new book, Ronald Crelinsten seeks to provide answers to these pressing questions, challenging readers to think beyond disciplinary and jurisdictional boundaries. He presents an up-to-date and comprehensive introduction to the difficulties and obstacles related to countering terrorism in democratic societies. The counterterrorism framework that he develops in this book reflects the complex world in which we live. The different approaches to counterterrorism provide the organizing theme of the book and help the reader to understand and to appreciate the full range of options available. The book: includes a host of contemporary examples and further readings; compares and contrasts pre- and post-9/11 approaches; critically evaluates the post-9/11 ‘war on terror'; moves beyond a purely state-centric focus to include non-state actors and institutions; combines hard and soft power approaches; considers prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Counterterrorism will be an indispensible guide for students, researchers, practitioners and general readers wanting to broaden their knowledge of the possibilities and limitations of counterterrorism today.

The Future of Extended Deterrence

The United States, NATO, and Beyond

Author: Stéfanie von Hlatky,Andreas Wenger

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 1626162662

Category: Political Science

Page: 280

Are NATO’s mutual security commitments strong enough today to deter all adversaries? Is the nuclear umbrella as credible as it was during the Cold War? Backed by the full range of US and allied military capabilities, NATO’s mutual defense treaty has been enormously successful, but today’s commitments are strained by military budget cuts and antinuclear sentiment. The United States has also shifted its focus away from European security during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and more recently with the Asia rebalance. Will a resurgent Russia change this? The Future of Extended Deterrence brings together experts and scholars from the policy and academic worlds to provide a theoretically rich and detailed analysis of post–Cold War nuclear weapons policy, nuclear deterrence, alliance commitments, nonproliferation, and missile defense in NATO but with implications far beyond. The contributors analyze not only American policy and ideas but also the ways NATO members interpret their own continued political and strategic role in the alliance. In-depth and multifaceted, The Future of Extended Deterrence is an essential resource for policy practitioners and scholars of nuclear deterrence, arms control, missile defense, and the NATO alliance.

Pakistan's Nuclear Future

Worries Beyond War - War College Series

Author: Henry D Sokolski

Publisher: War College Series

ISBN: 9781296047849

Category:

Page: 388

This is a curated and comprehensive collection of the most important works covering matters related to national security, diplomacy, defense, war, strategy, and tactics. The collection spans centuries of thought and experience, and includes the latest analysis of international threats, both conventional and asymmetric. It also includes riveting first person accounts of historic battles and wars.Some of the books in this Series are reproductions of historical works preserved by some of the leading libraries in the world. As with any reproduction of a historical artifact, some of these books contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. We believe these books are essential to this collection and the study of war, and have therefore brought them back into print, despite these imperfections.We hope you enjoy the unmatched breadth and depth of this collection, from the historical to the just-published works.

The Obama Administration’s Nuclear Weapon Strategy

The Promises of Prague

Author: Aiden Warren

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135093873

Category: Political Science

Page: 322

This book comprehensively outlines and evaluates the key Obama nuclear weapons policies, developments and initiatives from 2008–2012. Beginning with the administration’s vision and goals posited in the 2009 Prague Speech and reaffirmed in the National Security Strategy of 2010, the book assesses the congressionally mandated Nuclear Posture Review, the New START Treaty, the pursuit of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty ratification, the Proliferation Security Initiative, the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Review Conference, the Global Nuclear Security Summit – and the extent to which Obama, in the context of such initiatives, has actually upheld the lofty goals posited in Prague and differentiated himself from the nuclear path pursued by the Bush Administration. Additionally, the book evaluates the Obama Administration’s dealings with other states in the context of its nuclear weapons policy – in particular, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, Israel, India, and China. Offering a comprehensive analysis of the current status of the US nuclear weapons strategy, this volume will be of great interest to scholars and students of American foreign policy, security studies and international relations.

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