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Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy

Author: Imran Demir

Publisher: Springer


Category: Political Science

Page: 142

View: 446

This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

Decision Taking, Confidence and Risk Management in Banks from Early Modernity to the 20th Century

Author: Korinna Schönhärl

Publisher: Springer


Category: Business & Economics

Page: 342

View: 863

This book offers 14 contributions that examine key questions in bank decision-taking,constitution of confidence in banks and risk management practices from Early Modernity to the twentieth century. It explores how the various mechanisms of bank decision taking changed over time. Chapters also analyse the types of risk management techniques used, the contributory factors to the constitution of confidence and the methods that banking historians can use to analyse and describe bankers ́ risk management and decision taking - from system theory to behavioural finance, new institutional economics to praxeology and convention theory to network analysis. The different methodological approaches are put to the test in case studies based on archive material from four hundred years of banking in order to connect banking history more closely to political and cultural history.

Risk Taking and Decision Making

Foreign Military Intervention Decisions


Publisher: Stanford University Press


Category: Political Science


View: 661

Political Psychology

Situations, Individuals, and Cases

Author: David Patrick Houghton

Publisher: Routledge


Category: Political Science

Page: 330

View: 104

What shapes political behavior more: the situations in which individuals find themselves, or the internal psychological makeup---beliefs, values, and so on---of those individuals? This is perhaps the leading division within the psychological study of politics today. Political Psychology: Situations, Individuals, and Cases, 2nd edition, provides a concise, readable, and conceptually organized introduction to the topic of political psychology by examining this very question. Using this situationism--dispositionism framework—which roughly parallels the concerns of social and cognitive psychology—this book focuses on such key explanatory mechanisms as behaviorism, obedience, personality, groupthink, cognition, affect, emotion, and neuroscience to explore topics ranging from voting behavior and racism to terrorism and international relations. The new edition includes a new chapter on the psychology of the media and communication. Houghton has also updated the text to analyze recent political events such as the 2012 election, and to include up-and-coming research in the areas of neuroscience, behavioral economics, and more. Houghton's clear and engaging examples directly challenge students to place themselves in both real and hypothetical situations which involve intense moral and political dilemmas. This highly readable text will provide students with the conceptual foundation they need to make sense of the rapidly changing and increasingly important field of political psychology.

U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes

Author: Stephen G. Walker

Publisher: Stanford University Press


Category: Political Science

Page: 360

View: 676

Mistakes, in the form of bad decisions, are a common feature of every presidential administration, and their consequences run the gamut from unnecessary military spending, to missed opportunities for foreign policy advantage, to needless bloodshed. This book analyzes a range of presidential decisions made in the realm of US foreign policy—with a special focus on national security—over the past half century in order to create a roadmap of the decision process and a guide to better foreign policy decision-making in the increasingly complex context of 21st century international relations. Mistakes are analyzed in two general categories—ones of omission and ones of commission within the context of perceived threats and opportunities. Within this framework, the authors discuss how past scholarship has addressed these questions and argue that this research has not explicitly identified a vantage point around which the answers to these questions revolve. They propose game theory models of complex adaptive systems for minimizing bad decisions and apply them to test cases in the Middle East and Asia.

Foreign Policy Decision-making

A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Political Argumentation

Author: Irmtraud N. Gallhofer

Publisher: Greenwood Publishing Group


Category: Language Arts & Disciplines

Page: 276

View: 929

An empirical research study of political argumentation and decision making systematizes the manner in which politicians reach conclusions, and distinguishes this process from the arguments presented to the public. The authors discuss cognitive mapping, decision theory, analyze documentation, outline

Foreign Policy Analysis

Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation

Author: Laura Neack



Category: International relations

Page: 319

View: 473

Through a broad-reaching collection of readings, this text illustrates the second generation scholarship in foreign policy analysis. It adopts a quantitative and positivist approach, using real-world examples and theoretical discussions to help bridge the theory and practice of foreign policy.

Beyond groupthink

political group dynamics and foreign policy-making

Author: Paul 't Hart

Publisher: Univ of Michigan Pr


Category: Education

Page: 384

View: 485

Effects of group dynamics on decision making

SAIS Review




Category: Electronic journals


View: 222

Can governments learn?

American foreign policy and Central American revolutions

Author: Lloyd S. Etheredge

Publisher: Pergamon


Category: Political Science

Page: 227

View: 613

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