Search Results: overconfidence-and-risk-taking-in-foreign-policy-decision-making

Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy

Author: Imran Demir

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319526057

Category: Political Science

Page: 142

View: 864

This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

Decision Taking, Confidence and Risk Management in Banks from Early Modernity to the 20th Century

Author: Korinna Schönhärl

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319420763

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 342

View: 9003

This book offers 14 contributions that examine key questions in bank decision-taking,constitution of confidence in banks and risk management practices from Early Modernity to the twentieth century. It explores how the various mechanisms of bank decision taking changed over time. Chapters also analyse the types of risk management techniques used, the contributory factors to the constitution of confidence and the methods that banking historians can use to analyse and describe bankers ́ risk management and decision taking - from system theory to behavioural finance, new institutional economics to praxeology and convention theory to network analysis. The different methodological approaches are put to the test in case studies based on archive material from four hundred years of banking in order to connect banking history more closely to political and cultural history.

Risk Taking and Decision Making

Foreign Military Intervention Decisions

Author: N.A

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 0804765073

Category: Political Science

Page: N.A

View: 7297

Political Psychology

Situations, Individuals, and Cases

Author: David Patrick Houghton

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 113505178X

Category: Political Science

Page: 330

View: 1831

What shapes political behavior more: the situations in which individuals find themselves, or the internal psychological makeup---beliefs, values, and so on---of those individuals? This is perhaps the leading division within the psychological study of politics today. Political Psychology: Situations, Individuals, and Cases, 2nd edition, provides a concise, readable, and conceptually organized introduction to the topic of political psychology by examining this very question. Using this situationism--dispositionism framework—which roughly parallels the concerns of social and cognitive psychology—this book focuses on such key explanatory mechanisms as behaviorism, obedience, personality, groupthink, cognition, affect, emotion, and neuroscience to explore topics ranging from voting behavior and racism to terrorism and international relations. The new edition includes a new chapter on the psychology of the media and communication. Houghton has also updated the text to analyze recent political events such as the 2012 election, and to include up-and-coming research in the areas of neuroscience, behavioral economics, and more. Houghton's clear and engaging examples directly challenge students to place themselves in both real and hypothetical situations which involve intense moral and political dilemmas. This highly readable text will provide students with the conceptual foundation they need to make sense of the rapidly changing and increasingly important field of political psychology.

U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes

Author: Stephen G. Walker,Akan Malici

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 0804780692

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

View: 995

Mistakes, in the form of bad decisions, are a common feature of every presidential administration, and their consequences run the gamut from unnecessary military spending, to missed opportunities for foreign policy advantage, to needless bloodshed. This book analyzes a range of presidential decisions made in the realm of US foreign policy—with a special focus on national security—over the past half century in order to create a roadmap of the decision process and a guide to better foreign policy decision-making in the increasingly complex context of 21st century international relations. Mistakes are analyzed in two general categories—ones of omission and ones of commission within the context of perceived threats and opportunities. Within this framework, the authors discuss how past scholarship has addressed these questions and argue that this research has not explicitly identified a vantage point around which the answers to these questions revolve. They propose game theory models of complex adaptive systems for minimizing bad decisions and apply them to test cases in the Middle East and Asia.

SAIS Review

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A


Category: Electronic journals

Page: N.A

View: 2616

Foreign Policy Analysis

Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation

Author: Laura Neack,Jeanne A. K. Hey,Patrick Jude Haney

Publisher: N.A


Category: International relations

Page: 319

View: 7678

Through a broad-reaching collection of readings, this text illustrates the second generation scholarship in foreign policy analysis. It adopts a quantitative and positivist approach, using real-world examples and theoretical discussions to help bridge the theory and practice of foreign policy.

Beyond Greed and Fear

Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Author: Hersh Shefrin

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 9780195161212

Category: Social Science

Page: 368

View: 7383

Why do most financial decision-making models fail to factor in basic human nature? This guide to what really influences the decision- making process applies psychological research to stock selection, financial services and corporate financial strategy, using real-world examples.

Beyond groupthink

political group dynamics and foreign policy-making

Author: Paul 't Hart,Eric K. Stern,Bengt Sundelius

Publisher: Univ of Michigan Pr


Category: Education

Page: 384

View: 3692

Effects of group dynamics on decision making

Risk Strategies

Dialling Up Optimum Firm Risk

Author: Dr Les Coleman

Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd.

ISBN: 1409459535

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 264

View: 1188

At a time when unacceptable risk taking is rightly condemned, how can organizations still benefit from the upside of risk? Can risk still be good? Written by an author who has managed risk, teaches about risk, but most importantly of all has researched the theory of risk, this book will help senior executives dial up the right level of risk within their organizations in order to enhance performance. There are many risk management techniques that are known to work and risk management has logged many successes, but that doesn't mean managers understand why they work, how and why risks arise, and how organizations can be shaped strategically to optimize the benefits of well-judged business risks. Dr Les Coleman argues that finance and management risk has been a theory-free zone, similar to medicine in the Middle Ages, when physicians were aware of surgical techniques and medicines that worked, but did not know why and were impotent in the face of systemic illness. Today risk managers face much the same situation: They know of techniques that work such as audits, controls and procedure guides. Nevertheless, they rarely anticipate, much less prevent, serious failures. They have no comprehensive knowledge framework for targeting optimum risk levels. This timely book fills some of that gap with an outline of the nature and sources of risk in firms. It sets out a body of risk knowledge to support its management, particularly at the corporate level, in much the same way that our understanding of human physiology and the physical sciences support modern medical and engineering techniques. The reader will learn, for example, how risk attitudes and outcomes flow through an organization and about creative techniques such as asset-liability management. In this area of corporate finance so critical for executives and directors, Risk Strategies will help responsible CFOs and other senior managers, together with teachers and students of management, extend their knowledge and risk management skills.

Can governments learn?

American foreign policy and Central American revolutions

Author: Lloyd S. Etheredge

Publisher: Pergamon

ISBN: 9780080324012

Category: Political Science

Page: 227

View: 4315

Experimental Study of Politics

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A


Category: Political science

Page: N.A

View: 1318

Courses of Study

Author: Cornell University

Publisher: N.A


Category: Education

Page: N.A

View: 9304


Search for a More Human Political Science

Author: Thomas C. Wiegele

Publisher: N.A


Category: Biologie

Page: 159

View: 8389

Wilderness Medicine E-Book

Expert Consult Premium Edition - Enhanced Online Features

Author: Paul S. Auerbach

Publisher: Elsevier Health Sciences

ISBN: 1455733563

Category: Medical

Page: 2304

View: 9676

Quickly and decisively manage any medical emergency you encounter in the great outdoors with Wilderness Medicine! World-renowned authority and author, Dr. Paul Auerbach, and a team of experts offer proven, practical, visual guidance for effectively diagnosing and treating the full range of emergencies and health problems encountered in situations where time and resources are scarce. Every day, more and more people are venturing into the wilderness and extreme environments, or are victims of horrific natural disasters...and many are unprepared for the dangers and aftermath that come with these episodes. Whether these victims are stranded on mountaintops, lost in the desert, injured on a remote bike path, or ill far out at sea, this indispensable resource--now with online access at for greater accessibility and portability-- equips rescuers and health care professionals to effectively address and prevent injury and illness in the wilderness! This textbook is widely referred to as "The Bible of Wilderness Medicine." Be able to practice emergency medicine outside of the traditional hospital/clinical setting whether you are in remote environments, underdeveloped but highly populated areas, or disaster areas, are part of search and rescue operations, or dealing with casualties from episodes of extreme sports and active lifestyle activities. Face any medical challenge in the wilderness with expert guidance: Dr. Auerbach is a noted author and the world's leading authority on wilderness medicine. He is a founder and Past President of the Wilderness Medical Society, consultant to the Divers Alert Network and many other agencies and organizations, and a member of the National Medical Committee for the National Ski Patrol System. Handle everything from frostbite to infection by marine microbes, not to mention other diverse injuries, bites, stings, poisonous plant exposures, animal attacks, and natural disasters. Grasp the essential aspects of search and rescue. Respond quickly and effectively by improvising with available materials. Improve your competency and readiness with the latest guidance on volcanic eruptions, extreme sports, splints and slings, wilderness cardiology, living off the land, aerospace medicine, mental health in the wilderness, tactical combat casualty care, and much more. Meet the needs and special considerations of specific patient populations such as children, women, elders, persons with chronic medical conditions, and the disabled. Make smart decisions about gear, navigation, nutrition, and survival. Be prepared for everything with expanded coverage on topics such as high altitude, cold water immersion, and poisonous and venomous plants and animals. Get the skills you need now with new information on global humanitarian relief and expedition medicine, plus expanded coverage of injury prevention and environmental preservation. Get guidance on the go with fully searchable online text, plus bonus images, tables and video clips - all available on

Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets

Author: Christian Ullrich

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 3642004954

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 207

View: 7614

Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.

Thinking about Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict

A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion

Author: Paul K. Davis,John Arquilla

Publisher: N.A


Category: Deterrence (Strategy)

Page: 38

View: 1300

A Monthly Survey of Foreign Affairs

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A


Category: Great Britain

Page: N.A

View: 1774

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