Search Results: overconfidence-and-risk-taking-in-foreign-policy-decision-making

Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy

Author: Imran Demir

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319526057

Category: Political Science

Page: 142

View: 3590

This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

Risk-Taking in International Politics

Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy

Author: Rose McDermott

Publisher: University of Michigan Press

ISBN: 9780472087877

Category: Political Science

Page: 256

View: 6793

Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions

Decision Taking, Confidence and Risk Management in Banks from Early Modernity to the 20th Century

Author: Korinna Schönhärl

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319420763

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 342

View: 1025

This book offers 14 contributions that examine key questions concerning bankers ́ decision making, their confidence in partners and customers, and their risk management practices from Early Modernity to the 20th century. It explores various mechanisms of banks' decision taking, how they were established and how they changed over time. Specific chapters also analyze the types of risk management techniques used and the extent of their success; factors that contributed to the constitution of confidence and factors that damaged it; and methods that banking historians can use to analyze and describe bankers ́ risk management and decision making. The volume features varied methodological approaches for historical research (from system theory to behavioural finance, from new institutional economics to praxeology, from convention theory to network analysis). The different methodological approaches are put to the test in case studies based on archive material from five hundred years of banking (from Early Modern European banking networks to international computerization) in order to connect banking history more closely to political and cultural history.

Risk Taking and Decision Making

Foreign Military Intervention Decisions

Author: N.A

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 0804765073

Category: Political Science

Page: N.A

View: 3533

Political Psychology

Situations, Individuals, and Cases

Author: David Patrick Houghton

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 113505178X

Category: Political Science

Page: 330

View: 7147

What shapes political behavior more: the situations in which individuals find themselves, or the internal psychological makeup---beliefs, values, and so on---of those individuals? This is perhaps the leading division within the psychological study of politics today. Political Psychology: Situations, Individuals, and Cases, 2nd edition, provides a concise, readable, and conceptually organized introduction to the topic of political psychology by examining this very question. Using this situationism--dispositionism framework—which roughly parallels the concerns of social and cognitive psychology—this book focuses on such key explanatory mechanisms as behaviorism, obedience, personality, groupthink, cognition, affect, emotion, and neuroscience to explore topics ranging from voting behavior and racism to terrorism and international relations. The new edition includes a new chapter on the psychology of the media and communication. Houghton has also updated the text to analyze recent political events such as the 2012 election, and to include up-and-coming research in the areas of neuroscience, behavioral economics, and more. Houghton's clear and engaging examples directly challenge students to place themselves in both real and hypothetical situations which involve intense moral and political dilemmas. This highly readable text will provide students with the conceptual foundation they need to make sense of the rapidly changing and increasingly important field of political psychology.

U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes

Author: Stephen G. Walker,Akan Malici

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 0804780692

Category: Political Science

Page: 360

View: 883

Mistakes, in the form of bad decisions, are a common feature of every presidential administration, and their consequences run the gamut from unnecessary military spending, to missed opportunities for foreign policy advantage, to needless bloodshed. This book analyzes a range of presidential decisions made in the realm of US foreign policy—with a special focus on national security—over the past half century in order to create a roadmap of the decision process and a guide to better foreign policy decision-making in the increasingly complex context of 21st century international relations. Mistakes are analyzed in two general categories—ones of omission and ones of commission within the context of perceived threats and opportunities. Within this framework, the authors discuss how past scholarship has addressed these questions and argue that this research has not explicitly identified a vantage point around which the answers to these questions revolve. They propose game theory models of complex adaptive systems for minimizing bad decisions and apply them to test cases in the Middle East and Asia.

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf

How Risk-Taking Transforms Us, Body and Mind

Author: John Coates

Publisher: Random House Canada

ISBN: 0307359697

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 4446

A successful Wall Street trader turned Cambridge neuroscientist reveals the biology of financial boom and bust, showing how risk-taking transforms our body chemistry, driving us to extremes of euphoria or stressed-out depression. The laws of financial boom and bust, it turns out, have a lot to do with male hormones. In a series of startling experiments, Canadian scientist Dr. John Coates identified a feedback loop between testosterone and success that dramatically lowers the fear of risk in men, especially young men; he has vividly dubbed the moment when traders transform into exuberant high flyers "the hour between dog and wolf." Similarly, intense failure leads to a rise in levels of cortisol, which dramatically lowers the appetite for risk. His book expands on his seminal research to offer lessons from the exploding new field studying the biology of risk. Coates's conclusions shed light on all types of high-pressure decision-making, from the sports field to the battlefield, and leaves us with a powerful recognition: to handle risk isn't a matter of mind over body, it's a matter of mind and body working together. We all have it in us to be transformed from dog to wolf; the only question is whether we can understand the causes and the consequences.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

ISBN: 1429969350

Category: Psychology

Page: 512

View: 5880

Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Judgment Misguided

Intuition and Error in Public Decision Making

Author: Jonathan Baron

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 0195111087

Category: Political Science

Page: 225

View: 625

People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

Foreign Policy Analysis

Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation

Author: Laura Neack,Jeanne A. K. Hey,Patrick Jude Haney

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: International relations

Page: 319

View: 4420

Through a broad-reaching collection of readings, this text illustrates the second generation scholarship in foreign policy analysis. It adopts a quantitative and positivist approach, using real-world examples and theoretical discussions to help bridge the theory and practice of foreign policy.

Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

Author: Alex Mintz,Karl DeRouen Jr

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139487221

Category: Political Science

Page: N.A

View: 7936

Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not present such an approach to foreign policy decision making, international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.

The Confidence Gap

A Guide to Overcoming Fear and Self-Doubt

Author: Russ Harris

Publisher: Shambhala Publications

ISBN: 0834827662

Category: Self-Help

Page: 240

View: 3004

Too many of us miss out on opportunities in life because we lack self-confidence. Whether it's public speaking, taking on a leadership role, or asking someone for a date, there are situations in which we just don't feel equipped to handle the challenges we face. Russ Harris offers a surprising solution to low self-confidence, shyness, and insecurity: Rather than trying to "get over" our fears, he says, the secret is to form a new and wiser relationship with them. Paradoxically, it's only when we stop struggling against our fearfulness that we begin to find lasting freedom from it. Drawing on the techniques of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT), a cutting-edge form of cognitive-behavioral therapy, The Confidence Gap explains how to: • Free yourself from common misconceptions about what confidence is and how to build it • Transform your relationship with fear and anxiety • Clarify your core values and use them as your inspiration and motivation • Use mindfulness to effectively handle negative thoughts and feelings.

The Pivotal States

A New Framework for U.S. Policy in the Developing World

Author: Robert Chase,Emily Hill,Paul M. Kennedy

Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company

ISBN: 9780393046755

Category: Political Science

Page: 445

View: 1467

Argues foreign policy resources should be focused on Brazil, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Algeria, Turkey, South Africa, and Mexico

National Security Through a Cockeyed Lens

How Cognitive Bias Impacts U.S. Foreign Policy

Author: Steve A. Yetiv

Publisher: JHU Press

ISBN: 1421411253

Category: Political Science

Page: 155

View: 9039

"What are key mental errors that can undermine good decision making? Drawing on four decades of psychological, historical, and political science research on cognitive biases, this book illuminates key pitfalls in how we and our leaders make decisions. It shows in five case studies of American foreign and energy policy that such errors--a dozen different cognitive biases--have been more important in shaping and impacting U.S. national interests than we currently understand. In so doing, it also sheds light on U.S. foreign policy toward and interests in the Middle East. That story prominently features non-psychological explanations, but cognitive biases exercised by American and foreign actors also represent a slice of the story that is worth revealing. As examples, the book shows how the distorted cognitive lens of Al-Qaeda leaders contributed to the September 11 attacks and the ongoing conflict with America and the West; how overconfidence impacted America's decision to invade Iraq in 2003; and how short term thinking--a prominent cognitive bias--hurts America's ability to develop a comprehensive energy policy, making the Middle East more important to the United States and enhancing its proclivity to be involved in the region. The book is aimed chiefly at students and the lay public, though academics may benefit from it"--

OECD Insights Debate the Issues: Complexity and Policy making

Author: Love Patrick,Stockdale-Otárola Julia

Publisher: OECD Publishing

ISBN: 9264271538

Category:

Page: 104

View: 6430

The financial crisis and Great Recession revealed failures in economic analyses and the policy choices these analyses informed.

Beyond Greed and Fear

Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

Author: Hersh Shefrin

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

ISBN: 9780195161212

Category: Social Science

Page: 368

View: 774

Why do most financial decision-making models fail to factor in basic human nature? This guide to what really influences the decision- making process applies psychological research to stock selection, financial services and corporate financial strategy, using real-world examples.

Beyond groupthink

political group dynamics and foreign policy-making

Author: Paul 't Hart,Eric K. Stern,Bengt Sundelius

Publisher: Univ of Michigan Pr

ISBN: N.A

Category: Education

Page: 384

View: 342

Effects of group dynamics on decision making

SAIS Review

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Electronic journals

Page: N.A

View: 566

Nudge

Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness

Author: Richard H. Thaler,Cass R. Sunstein

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 1101655097

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 320

View: 6605

From the winner of the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics, Richard H. Thaler, and Cass R. Sunstein: a revelatory look at how we make decisions—for fans of Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink and Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow New York Times bestseller Named a Best Book of the Year by The Economist and the Financial Times Every day we make choices—about what to buy or eat, about financial investments or our children’s health and education, even about the causes we champion or the planet itself. Unfortunately, we often choose poorly. Nudge is about how we make these choices and how we can make better ones. Using dozens of eye-opening examples and drawing on decades of behavioral science research, Nobel Prize winner Richard H. Thaler and Harvard Law School professor Cass R. Sunstein show that no choice is ever presented to us in a neutral way, and that we are all susceptible to biases that can lead us to make bad decisions. But by knowing how people think, we can use sensible “choice architecture” to nudge people toward the best decisions for ourselves, our families, and our society, without restricting our freedom of choice. More than 750,000 copies sold

Risk Strategies

Dialling Up Optimum Firm Risk

Author: Dr Les Coleman

Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd.

ISBN: 1409459535

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 264

View: 4669

At a time when unacceptable risk taking is rightly condemned, how can organizations still benefit from the upside of risk? Can risk still be good? Written by an author who has managed risk, teaches about risk, but most importantly of all has researched the theory of risk, this book will help senior executives dial up the right level of risk within their organizations in order to enhance performance. There are many risk management techniques that are known to work and risk management has logged many successes, but that doesn't mean managers understand why they work, how and why risks arise, and how organizations can be shaped strategically to optimize the benefits of well-judged business risks. Dr Les Coleman argues that finance and management risk has been a theory-free zone, similar to medicine in the Middle Ages, when physicians were aware of surgical techniques and medicines that worked, but did not know why and were impotent in the face of systemic illness. Today risk managers face much the same situation: They know of techniques that work such as audits, controls and procedure guides. Nevertheless, they rarely anticipate, much less prevent, serious failures. They have no comprehensive knowledge framework for targeting optimum risk levels. This timely book fills some of that gap with an outline of the nature and sources of risk in firms. It sets out a body of risk knowledge to support its management, particularly at the corporate level, in much the same way that our understanding of human physiology and the physical sciences support modern medical and engineering techniques. The reader will learn, for example, how risk attitudes and outcomes flow through an organization and about creative techniques such as asset-liability management. In this area of corporate finance so critical for executives and directors, Risk Strategies will help responsible CFOs and other senior managers, together with teachers and students of management, extend their knowledge and risk management skills.

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