Search Results: overconfidence-and-war

OVERCONFIDENCE AND WAR

Author: Dominic D. P. Johnson

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674039165

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 3483

Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in "Overconfidence and War," states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Dictators at War and Peace

Author: Jessica L. P. Weeks

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455235

Category: Political Science

Page: 264

View: 7706

Why do some autocratic leaders pursue aggressive or expansionist foreign policies, while others are much more cautious in their use of military force? The first book to focus systematically on the foreign policy of different types of authoritarian regimes, Dictators at War and Peace breaks new ground in our understanding of the international behavior of dictators. Jessica L. P. Weeks explains why certain kinds of regimes are less likely to resort to war than others, why some are more likely to win the wars they start, and why some authoritarian leaders face domestic punishment for foreign policy failures whereas others can weather all but the most serious military defeat. Using novel cross-national data, Weeks looks at various nondemocratic regimes, including those of Saddam Hussein and Joseph Stalin; the Argentine junta at the time of the Falklands War, the military government in Japan before and during World War II, and the North Vietnamese communist regime. She finds that the differences in the conflict behavior of distinct kinds of autocracies are as great as those between democracies and dictatorships. Indeed, some types of autocracies are no more belligerent or reckless than democracies, casting doubt on the common view that democracies are more selective about war than autocracies.

National Security through a Cockeyed Lens

How Cognitive Bias Impacts U.S. Foreign Policy

Author: Steve A. Yetiv

Publisher: JHU Press

ISBN: 1421411261

Category: Political Science

Page: 168

View: 4327

"How do mental errors or cognitive biases undermine good decision making?" This is the question Steve A. Yetiv takes up in his latest foreign policy study, National Security through a Cockeyed Lens. Yetiv draws on four decades of psychological, historical, and political science research on cognitive biases to illuminate some of the key pitfalls in our leaders’ decision-making processes and some of the mental errors we make in perceiving ourselves and the world. Tracing five U.S. national security episodes—the 1979 Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan; the Iran-Contra affair during the Reagan administration; the rise of al-Qaeda, leading to the 9/11 attacks; the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq; and the development of U.S. energy policy—Yetiv reveals how a dozen cognitive biases have been more influential in impacting U.S. national security than commonly believed or understood. Identifying a primary bias in each episode—disconnect of perception versus reality, tunnel vision ("focus feature"), distorted perception ("cockeyed lens"), overconfidence, and short-term thinking—Yetiv explains how each bias drove the decision-making process and what the outcomes were for the various actors. His concluding chapter examines a range of debiasing techniques, exploring how they can improve decision making. -- Patrick James, University of Southern California

Waging War, Planning Peace

U.S. Noncombat Operations and Major Wars

Author: Aaron Rapport

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801455634

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 8178

As the U.S. experience in Iraq following the 2003 invasion made abundantly clear, failure to properly plan for risks associated with postconflict stabilization and reconstruction can have a devastating impact on the overall success of a military mission. In Waging War, Planning Peace, Aaron Rapport investigates how U.S. presidents and their senior advisers have managed vital noncombat activities while the nation is in the midst of fighting or preparing to fight major wars. He argues that research from psychology—specifically, construal level theory—can help explain how individuals reason about the costs of postconflict noncombat operations that they perceive as lying in the distant future. In addition to preparations for "Phase IV" in the lead-up to the Iraq War, Rapport looks at the occupation of Germany after World War II, the planned occupation of North Korea in 1950, and noncombat operations in Vietnam in 1964 and 1965. Applying his insights to these cases, he finds that civilian and military planners tend to think about near-term tasks in concrete terms, seriously assessing the feasibility of the means they plan to employ to secure valued ends. For tasks they perceive as further removed in time, they tend to focus more on the desirability of the overarching goals they are pursuing rather than the potential costs, risks, and challenges associated with the means necessary to achieve these goals. Construal level theory, Rapport contends, provides a coherent explanation of how a strategic disconnect can occur. It can also show postwar planners how to avoid such perilous missteps.

Der Zauderberg

Warum wir immer alles auf morgen verschieben und wie wir damit aufhören

Author: Dr. Piers Steel

Publisher: BASTEI LÜBBE

ISBN: 3838706323

Category: Political Science

Page: 332

View: 8958

Der Keller ist immer noch nicht ausgemistet, die Steuererklärung irgendwo in der Versenkung verschwunden und das Zeitungs-Abo nicht gekündigt. Einzig das schlechte Gewissen meldet sich zuverlässig, sonst passiert nichts. Was steckt dahinter? Warum machen wir es uns so schwer? Was können wir dagegen tun? Diesen Fragen stellt sich der Verhaltensforscher und bekennender Aufschieber Piers Steel. Seine gute Nachricht: Heilung ist möglich - und das, ohne den armen Schweinehund zu quälen und sich sämtlichen Vergnügungen zu versagen. Folgen Sie Piers Steel und Ihre Trägheit wird weichen. Sie werden endlich alles ohne Zögern und Zaudern erledigen und nie wieder die Steuererklärung liegen lassen!

After War

The Political Economy of Exporting Democracy

Author: Christopher J. Coyne

Publisher: Stanford University Press

ISBN: 9780804754392

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 238

View: 7868

Post-conflict reconstruction is one of the most pressing political issues today. This book uses economics to analyze critically the incentives and constraints faced by various actors involved in reconstruction efforts. Through this analysis, the book will aid in understanding why some reconstructions are more successful than others.

Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy

Author: Imran Demir

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319526057

Category: Political Science

Page: 142

View: 8665

This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

The Astro Boy Essays

Osamu Tezuka, Mighty Atom, and the Manga/Anime Revolution

Author: Frederik L. Schodt

Publisher: Stone Bridge Press

ISBN: 161172516X

Category: Performing Arts

Page: 248

View: 571

The pioneering genius of Japan’s “God of Comics,” Osamu Tezuka (1928–89), is examined through his life’s masterwork: Tetsuwan Atomu, also known as Mighty Atom or Astro Boy, a comic series featuring a cute little android who yearns to be more human. The history of Tetsuwan Atomu and Tezuka’s role in it is a road map to understanding the development of new media in Japan and the United States. Topics include Tezuka’s life, the art of animation, the connection between fantasy robots and technology, spin-offs, and Astro Boy’s cultural impact. Frederik L. Schodt is a translator and author of numerous books about Japan, including Manga! Manga! and Dreamland Japan. He often served as Osamu Tezuka’s English interpreter. In 2009 he was received the The Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Rosette for his contribution to the introduction and promotion of Japanese contemporary popular culture.

Revolution and War

Author: Stephen M. Walt

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 0801470005

Category: Political Science

Page: 376

View: 4770

Revolution within a state almost invariably leads to intense security competition between states, and often to war. In Revolution and War, Stephen M. Walt explains why this is so, and suggests how the risk of conflicts brought on by domestic upheaval might be reduced in the future. In doing so, he explores one of the basic questions of international relations: What are the connections between domestic politics and foreign policy? Walt begins by exposing the flaws in existing theories about the relationship between revolution and war. Drawing on the theoretical literature about revolution and the realist perspective on international politics, he argues that revolutions cause wars by altering the balance of threats between a revolutionary state and its rivals. Each state sees the other as both a looming danger and a vulnerable adversary, making war seem both necessary and attractive. Walt traces the dynamics of this argument through detailed studies of the French, Russian, and Iranian revolutions, and through briefer treatment of the American, Mexican, Turkish, and Chinese cases. He also considers the experience of the Soviet Union, whose revolutionary transformation led to conflict within the former Soviet empire but not with the outside world. An important refinement of realist approaches to international politics, this book unites the study of revolution with scholarship on the causes of war.

Sex and War

How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World

Author: Malcolm Potts,Thomas Hayden

Publisher: BenBella Books

ISBN: 1935251708

Category: Science

Page: 464

View: 3118

Combining exhaustive research and rich personal experience, Sex and War shows that war, terrorism slavery and the subjugation of women have common roots deep in humans' biological history. Evolution is not destiny, however, and the authors, with the crucial contributions of Martha Campbell, show how relatively simple strategies can help the biology of peace win out over the biology of war. In doing so, they lay out a rational roadmap to make war less likely in future and less brutal when it does occur. Now available in paperback.

Miraculous Growth and Stagnation in Post-War Japan

Author: Koichi Hamada,Keijiro Otsuka,Professor of Applied Economics and Law Keijiro Otsuka,Gustav Ranis,Ken Togo

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISBN: 1136738657

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 240

View: 4979

Sixty-five years have passed since the end of World War II. It is timely to reflect upon this short but curious Japanese economic history, beginning with the extreme hunger and poverty in the late 1940s, followed by quick recovery and "miraculous" growth since the late 1950s, to the first oil shock in 1972, slow growth in the reset of the 1970s and 1980s, and finally almost complete stagnation over the last two decades. This book attempts to make sense of Japan's economic history for these past sixty-five years.

Frederick Douglass and Herman Melville

Essays in Relation

Author: Robert S. Levine,Samuel Otter

Publisher: UNC Press Books

ISBN: 1469606690

Category: Literary Collections

Page: 488

View: 7592

Frederick Douglass (1818-1895) and Herman Melville (1819-1891) addressed in their writings a range of issues that continue to resonate in American culture: the reach and limits of democracy; the nature of freedom; the roles of race, gender, and sexuality; and the place of the United States in the world. Yet they are rarely discussed together, perhaps because of their differences in race and social position. Douglass escaped from slavery and tied his well-received nonfiction writing to political activism, becoming a figure of international prominence. Melville was the grandson of Revolutionary War heroes and addressed urgent issues through fiction and poetry, laboring in increasing obscurity. In eighteen original essays, the contributors to this collection explore the convergences and divergences of these two extraordinary literary lives. Developing new perspectives on literature, biography, race, gender, and politics, this volume ultimately raises questions that help rewrite the color line in nineteenth-century studies. Contributors: Elizabeth Barnes, College of William and Mary Hester Blum, The Pennsylvania State University Russ Castronovo, University of Wisconsin-Madison John Ernest, West Virginia University William Gleason, Princeton University Gregory Jay, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Carolyn L. Karcher, Washington, D.C. Rodrigo Lazo, University of California, Irvine Maurice S. Lee, Boston University Robert S. Levine, University of Maryland, College Park Steven Mailloux, University of California, Irvine Dana D. Nelson, Vanderbilt University Samuel Otter, University of California, Berkeley John Stauffer, Harvard University Sterling Stuckey, University of California, Riverside Eric J. Sundquist, University of California, Los Angeles Elisa Tamarkin, University of California, Irvine Susan M. Ryan, University of Louisville David Van Leer, University of California, Davis Maurice Wallace, Duke University Robert K. Wallace, Northern Kentucky University Kenneth W. Warren, University of Chicago

How the War Was Won

Command and Technology in the British Army on the Western Front: 1917-1918

Author: T.H.E. Travers

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134902689

Category: History

Page: 268

View: 6090

"How the War Was Won" describes the major role played by the British Expeditionary Force on the Western Front in defeating the German army. In particular, the book explains the methods used in fighting the last year of the war, and raises questions as to whether mechanical warfare could have been more widely used. Using a wide range of unpublished material from archives in both Britain and Canada, Travers explores the two themes of command and technology as the style of warfare changed from late 1917 through 1918. He describes in detail the British army's defense against the German 1918 spring offensives, analyzes command problems during these offensives, and offers an overriding explanation for the March 1918 retreat. He also fully investigates the role of the tank from Cambrai to the end of the war, and concludes that, properly used, the tank could have made a greater contribution to victory. "How the War Was Won" explodes many myths and advances newand controversial arguments. It will be essential reading for military historians and strategists, and for those interested in the origins of mechanical warfare.

World War Two

A Military History

Author: Jeremy Black

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134405472

Category: History

Page: 320

View: 5420

Cutting through over half a century of historical build-up, this new and convincing account of World War II uses a global perspective to explain the complicated course in military terms. Black, a distinguished military historian , bucks the current trend to demilitarise and gives due weight to the campaigns and battles that made up the war. In doing so he challenges common interpretations and includes new insights to make this one of the most exciting new histories of the Second World War. Covering all the main areas of conflict, the chronological approach includes analysis of attacks at land, air and sea and a comparison of military resources. The focus is always operational, but social, cultural and political aspects are also included. Providing a crucial counterweight to previous histories, Jeremy Black's World War Two offers fresh insights into operations at the Eastern Front and during the war against Japan.

Command and Control for War and Peace

Author: DIANE Publishing Company,Thomas P. Coakley

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

ISBN: 9780788108259

Category:

Page: 219

View: 2475

Provides a broad view of the human, organizational, budgetary, and procedural elements fundamental to command and control. Also discusses how the command and control concept has grown into command, control, communications, intelligence, and information (C3I). Illustrated.

The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War

Author: Stephen Kinzer

Publisher: Macmillan

ISBN: 1429953527

Category: History

Page: 416

View: 9006

A joint biography of John Foster Dulles and Allen Dulles, who led the United States into an unseen war that decisively shaped today's world During the 1950s, when the Cold War was at its peak, two immensely powerful brothers led the United States into a series of foreign adventures whose effects are still shaking the world. John Foster Dulles was secretary of state while his brother, Allen Dulles, was director of the Central Intelligence Agency. In this book, Stephen Kinzer places their extraordinary lives against the background of American culture and history. He uses the framework of biography to ask: Why does the United States behave as it does in the world? The Brothers explores hidden forces that shape the national psyche, from religious piety to Western movies—many of which are about a noble gunman who cleans up a lawless town by killing bad guys. This is how the Dulles brothers saw themselves, and how many Americans still see their country's role in the world. Propelled by a quintessentially American set of fears and delusions, the Dulles brothers launched violent campaigns against foreign leaders they saw as threats to the United States. These campaigns helped push countries from Guatemala to the Congo into long spirals of violence, led the United States into the Vietnam War, and laid the foundation for decades of hostility between the United States and countries from Cuba to Iran. The story of the Dulles brothers is the story of America. It illuminates and helps explain the modern history of the United States and the world. A Kirkus Reviews Best Nonfiction Book of 2013

Twelve American Wars

Nine of Them Avoidable

Author: Eugene G. Windchy

Publisher: iUniverse

ISBN: 1491730544

Category: History

Page: 446

View: 1796

Eugene G. Windchy, author of Tonkin Gulf (“Superb investigative reporting”—NY Times), lays bare the tricks, errors, and secret plans that have taken the American people into avoidable wars. Our nation's greatest catastrophe was the Civil War, in which more than 620,000 people died. The war began when Southerners fired on Fort Sumter in Charleston, South Carolina. Windchy reports that the rebels had an opportunity to take the fort peacefully. Why did they open fire? We find out who made the final decision and why. World War I was a “war to make the world safe for democracy.” Instead, it gave birth to totalitarian Fascist and Communist regimes. World War II was a continuation of World War I, and that was followed by America's anti-Communist struggles in Korea and Vietnam. Today there are Communist countries with nuclear missiles aimed at American territory. We are still trying to cope with the effects of World War I, the greatest crime in modern history. How did the Great War begin? The history books tell us that it was sparked by an assassination. A young Serb shot an Austrian archduke, and Austria's retaliation on Serbia led to war between two great European alliances. Germany has received most of the blame for having promised to back up its Austrian ally. Twelve American Wars reveals that the archduke's assassination was a Serbian plot guided by Russian officials. The textbooks fail to mention that a month later there was another assassination. The silencing of a anti-war French politician covered up years of secret war planning by France and Russia. How did the United States get involved? One factor was the outrage provoked by the sinking of the huge passenger liner Lusitania, a British ship with Americans on board.Twelve American Wars presents overwhelming evidence that the British Admiralty, headed by Winston Churchill, deliberately put the Lusitania at risk, hoping to bring the United States into the war. Contrary to what we hear from Mexicans, the United States did not steal California from Mexico in the Mexican War of 1846 to 1848. Native Californians, called “Californios,” had expelled their last Mexican governor in 1845. Eugene Windchy's book is full of surprising facts. He believes that policy makers hoping to prevent war need to know the truth about our past wars, not just the politically acceptable stories in the textbooks.

The Origins of the First World War

Controversies and Consensus

Author: Annika Mombauer

Publisher: Pearson Education

ISBN: 9780582418721

Category: History

Page: 256

View: 5425

The seminal event of the 20th century, the origins of the First World War have always been difficult to establish and have aroused deep controversy. Annika Mombauer tracks the impassioned debates as they developed at critical points through the twentieth century. The book focuses on the controversy itself, rather than the specific events leading up to the war. Emotive and emotional from the very beginning of the conflict, the debate and the passions aroused in response to such issues as the ¿war-guilt paragraph¿ of the treaty of Versailles, are set in the context of the times in which they were proposed. Similarly, the argument has been fuelled by concerns over the sacrifices that were made and the casualities that were suffered. Were they really justified?

Der totale Rausch

Drogen im Dritten Reich

Author: Norman Ohler

Publisher: Kiepenheuer & Witsch

ISBN: 346231517X

Category: Social Science

Page: 368

View: 7932

Drogen im Dritten Reich – »dieses Buch ändert das Gesamtbild« (Hans Mommsen) Über Drogen im Dritten Reich ist bislang wenig bekannt. Norman Ohler geht den Tätern von damals buchstäblich unter die Haut und schaut direkt in ihre Blutbahnen hinein. Arisch rein ging es darin nicht zu, sondern chemisch deutsch – und ziemlich toxisch. Wo die Ideologie für Fanatismus und »Endsieg« nicht mehr ausreichte, wurde hemmungslos nachgeholfen, während man offiziell eine strikte Politik der »Rauschgiftbekämpfung« betrieb. Als Deutschland 1940 Frankreich überfiel, standen die Soldaten der Wehrmacht unter 35 Millionen Dosierungen Pervitin. Das Präparat – heute als Crystal Meth bekannt – war damals in jeder Apotheke erhältlich, machte den Blitzkrieg erst möglich und wurde zur Volksdroge im NS-Staat. Auch der vermeintliche Abstinenzler Hitler griff gerne zur pharmakologischen Stimulanz: Als er im Winter 1944 seine letzte Offensive befehligte, kannte er längst keine nüchternen Tage mehr. Schier pausenlos erhielt er von seinem Leibarzt Theo Morell verschiedenste Dopingmittel, dubiose Hormonpräparate und auch harte Drogen gespritzt. Nur so konnte der Diktator seinen Wahn bis zum Schluss aufrechterhalten. Ohler hat bislang gesperrte Materialien ausgewertet, mit Zeitzeugen, Militärhistorikern und Medizinern gesprochen. Entstanden ist ein erschütterndes, faktengenaues Buch. Der totale Rausch wurde von dem bedeutenden Historiker Hans Mommsen begleitet, der das Nachwort beisteuert. Sein Fazit: »Dieses Buch ändert das Gesamtbild.«

Classical Literature: A Very Short Introduction

Author: William Allan

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 019164336X

Category: Fiction

Page: 144

View: 2257

From popular histories through to reworkings of classical subject matter by contemporary poets, dramatists, and novelists, the classical world and the masterpieces of its literature continue to fascinate readers and audiences in a huge variety of media. In this Very Short Introduction, William Allan explores what the 'classics' are and why they continue to shape our Western concepts of literature. Presenting a range of material from both Greek and Latin literature, he illustrates the variety and sophistication of these works, and considers examples from all the major genres. Ideal for the general reader interested in works of classic literature, as well as students at A-Level and University, this is a lively and lucid guide to the major authors and literary forms of the ancient period. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

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