This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
This book aims at gauging whether the nature of US foreign policy decision-making has changed after the Cold War as radically as a large body of literature seems to suggest, and develops a new framework to interpret presidential decision-making in foreign policy. It locates the study of risk in US foreign policy in a wider intellectual landscape that draws on contemporary debates in historiography, international relations and Presidential studies. Based on developments in the health and environment literature, the book identifies the President as the ultimate risk-manager, demonstrating how a President is called to perform a delicate balancing act between risks on the domestic/political side and risks on the strategic/international side. Every decision represents a ‘risk vs. risk trade-off,’ in which the management of one ‘target risk’ leads to the development ‘countervailing risks.’ The book applies this framework to the study three major crises in US foreign policy: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979, and the massacre at Srebrenica in 1995. Each case-study results from substantial archival research and over twenty interviews with policymakers and academics, including former President Jimmy Carter and former Senator Bob Dole. This book is ideal for postgraduate researchers and academics in US foreign policy, foreign policy decision-making and the US Presidency as well as Departments and Institutes dealing with the study of risk in the social sciences. The case studies will also be of great use to undergraduate students.
Emerging from two conferences sponsored by the National Institute of Mental Health, this volume discusses scientific and clinical knowledge in areas of health concern where behavioral factors are known causes of, or are implicated in, death, disease, and disability. The 24 papers are in six parts: e
Many complex systems in civil and military operations are highly automated with the intention of supporting human performance in difficult cognitive tasks. The complex systems can involve teams or individuals working on real-time supervisory control, command or information management tasks where a number of constraints must be satisfied. Decision Making in Complex Environments addresses the role of the human, the technology and the processes in complex socio-technical and technological systems. The aim of the book is to apply a multi-disciplinary perspective to the examination of the human factors in complex decision making. It contains more than 30 contributions on key subjects such as military human factors, team decision making issues, situation awareness, and technology support. In addition to the major application area of military human factors there are chapters on business, medical, governmental and aeronautical decision making. The book provides a unique blend of expertise from psychology, human factors, industry, commercial environments, the military, computer science, organizational psychology and training that should be valuable to academics and practitioners alike.
The Ultimate Guide for Improving Your Decision Making
Author: Stephen P. Robbins
Publisher: Pearson Education
Make better decisions – every day, everywhere! Decide and Conquer, Second Edition brings together all the practical skills you need to do just that. This quick, concise book identifies every key obstacle to quality decision-making and shows exactly how to overcome them. You'll discover how your personality impacts your decision-making, why instincts and experience can lead you astray, how to simplify complex decisions without oversimplifying them and much more. Renowned management author Dr. Stephen P. Robbins translates cutting-edge research findings about human behavior and decision-making into language anyone can understand – and act upon. In this Second Edition, he provides many new and updated examples, updated research, and new coverage, including these crucial new topics: Are you a Maximizer or a Satisficer – and what it means for your decision-making Overcoming the familiarity bias, adaptation bias, and fear-of-loss bias How to stop throwing good money after bad Knowing when doing nothing is your best option Accounting for gendered decision-making styles Decide and Conquer, Second Edition covers everything from goal-setting and risk-taking to overconfidence to procrastination, and offers indispensable insights for overcoming the multiple biases that are built into all human decision-makers. You'll use Robbins' powerful techniques to improve every decision you make – about your relationships, career, finances, everything!
Classical economic theory assumes that people in risk situations follow a course of action based on a rational, consistent assessment of likely outcomes. But as Zur Shapira demonstrates in Risk Taking, corporate managers consistently stray from the prescribed path into far more subjective territory. Risk Taking offers a critical assessment of the relationship between theory and action in managerial decision making. Shapira offers a definitive account of the classical conception of risky decision making, which derives behavioral prescriptions from a calculation of both the value and the likelihood of possible outcomes. He then demonstrates how theories in this vein have been historically at odds with empirical observations. Risk Taking reports the results of an extensive survey of seven hundred managers that probed their attitudes and beliefs about risk and examined how they had actually made decisions in the face of uncertainty. The picture that emerges is of a dynamic, flexible process in which each manager's personal expertise and perceptions play profound roles. Managerial strategies are continually modified to suit changing circumstances. Rather than formulating probability estimates, executives create potential scenarios based not only on the possible outcomes but also on the many arbitrary factors inherent in their own situations. As Shapira notes, risk taking propensities vary among managers, and the need to maintain control and avoid particularly dangerous results exercises a powerful influence. Shapira also examines the impact of organizational structure, long-term management objectives, and incentives on decision making. With perceptive observations of the cognitive, emotional, and organizational dimensions of corporate decision making, Risk Taking propels the study of managerial risk behavior into new directions. This volume signals the way toward improving managerial decision making by revealing the need for more inclusive choice models that augment classical theory with vital behavioral observations.
This book is written to help social work practitioners and students on CPD courses make professional decisions with clients; from exercising statutory powers and duties to protect children from abuse, to making decisions about risk. This revised second edition has more of a focus on risk within social work practice as many social workers face daily pressure to make sound decisions in very difficult circumstances. In this complex arena of conflicting demands and considerations - from the public, the client, the family, the organisation - the professional needs a robust and yet flexible framework to inform practice decisions. Featuring illustrations from practice as well as case studies and practical activities to aid learning, this book provides a holistic view of decision making and risk as a core aspect of effective social work practice.
This book, written for practicing social workers undertaking their ASYE and compulsory CPD, has been designed to help professionals make sound judgments in increasingly complex contexts and under pressure.