Calculating Credibility examines—and ultimately rejects—a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis—not past actions—determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment—sports, gambling, warfare—competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.
This annual series provides comprehensive analysis on current and emerging issues of international trade and macroeconomics. Practitioners and academics contribute to each volume, with papers that provide an in-depth look at a particular topic. The third edition focuses on policy challenges for the next millennium. Contents include: "Fixing for Your Life" Guillermo Calvo and Carmen Reinhart (University of Maryland) "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime" Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University), Sergio Schmukler, and Luis Servén (World Bank) "Short- and Long-Run Integration: Do Capital Controls Matter?" Graciela Kaminsky (George Washington University) and Sergio Schmukler (World Bank) "The Role and Effectiveness of the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism" John H. Jackson (Georgetown University) "Regulatory Protectionism, Developing Nations, and a Two-Tier World Trade System" Richard E. Baldwin (Graduate Institute of International Studies) "Trade Policy: What's Next?" W. Bowman Cutter (Warburg Pincus), Richard Haass (Brookings Institution), and Daniel Tarullo (Georgetown University)
"In this edition, Meyer's analysis of the correlation between newspaper quality and profitability is updated and applied to recent developments in the newspaper industry. Meyer argues that understanding the relationship between quality and profit is central to sustaining journalistic excellence and preserving journalism's unique social functions." -- Provided by the publisher.
What Counts as Credible Evidence in Applied Research and Evaluation thoroughly covers one of the most fundamental issues facing applied research and evaluation practice today - what counts as sound evidence for decision making? An internationally renowned line up of authors explore a wide range of issues that address the fundamental challenges of designing and executing high quality applied research and evaluation studies. Readers will come away from this volume with a new and clear understanding of the philosophical, theoretical, methodological, political, and ethical dimensions of gathering credible evidence to answer fundamental research and evaluation questions across diverse disciplinary boundaries and "real world" contexts.